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Related papers: Bayesian Online Learning for Consensus Prediction

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Suppose that multiple experts (or learning algorithms) provide us with alternative Bayesian network (BN) structures over a domain, and that we are interested in combining them into a single consensus BN structure. Specifically, we are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-17 Jose M. Peña

Intelligent real-world systems critically depend on expressive information about their system state and changing operation conditions, e.g., due to variation in temperature, location, wear, or aging. To provide this information, online…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-17 Jan-Hendrik Ewering , Björn Volkmann , Simon F. G. Ehlers , Thomas Seel , Michael Meindl

Online learning is an inferential paradigm in which parameters are updated incrementally from sequentially available data, in contrast to batch learning, where the entire dataset is processed at once. In this paper, we assume that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Jeyong Lee , Junhyeok Choi , Minwoo Chae

We introduce scalable algorithms for online learning of neural network parameters and Bayesian sequential decision making. Unlike classical Bayesian neural networks, which induce predictive uncertainty through a posterior over model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Gerardo Duran-Martin , Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt , Álvaro Cartea , Kevin Murphy

We study the outcomes of information aggregation in online social networks. Our main result is that networks with certain realistic structural properties avoid information cascades and enable a population to effectively aggregate…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2014-08-25 Michal Feldman , Nicole Immorlica , Brendan Lucier , S. Matthew Weinberg

We present the Bayesian consensus filter (BCF) for tracking a moving target using a networked group of sensing agents and achieving consensus on the best estimate of the probability distributions of the target's states. Our BCF framework…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-14 Saptarshi Bandyopadhyay , Soon-Jo Chung

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-24 Ruben Loaiza-Maya , Gael M. Martin , David T. Frazier

We are interested in probabilistic prediction in online settings in which data does not follow a probability distribution. Our work seeks to achieve two goals: (1) producing valid probabilities that accurately reflect model confidence; and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Shachi Deshpande , Charles Marx , Volodymyr Kuleshov

We study an online version of the noisy binary search problem where feedback is generated by a non-stochastic adversary rather than perturbed by random noise. We reframe this as maintaining an accurate estimate for the median of an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-13 Michela Meister , Sloan Nietert

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-25 Steven Winter , Trevor Campbell , Lizhen Lin , Sanvesh Srivastava , David B. Dunson

Online learning represents an important family of machine learning algorithms, in which a learner attempts to resolve an online prediction (or any type of decision-making) task by learning a model/hypothesis from a sequence of data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-23 Steven C. H. Hoi , Doyen Sahoo , Jing Lu , Peilin Zhao

We consider the problem of online multiclass classification with partial feedback, where an algorithm predicts a class for a new instance in each round and only receives its correctness. Although several methods have been developed for this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-05 Takuo Kaneko , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

A Bayesian net (BN) is more than a succinct way to encode a probabilistic distribution; it also corresponds to a function used to answer queries. A BN can therefore be evaluated by the accuracy of the answers it returns. Many algorithms for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Russell Greiner , Adam J. Grove , Dale Schuurmans

Our goal is to deploy a high-accuracy system starting with zero training examples. We consider an "on-the-job" setting, where as inputs arrive, we use real-time crowdsourcing to resolve uncertainty where needed and output our prediction…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-12-09 Keenon Werling , Arun Chaganty , Percy Liang , Chris Manning

Relational query optimisers rely on cost models to choose between different query execution plans. Selectivity estimates are known to be a crucial input to the cost model. In practice, standard selectivity estimation procedures are prone to…

Databases · Computer Science 2020-09-22 Max Halford , Philippe Saint-Pierre , Franck Morvan

The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-28 Matteo Ferrante , Tommaso Boccato , Nicola Toschi

The task of clustering a set of objects based on multiple sources of data arises in several modern applications. We propose an integrative statistical model that permits a separate clustering of the objects for each data source. These…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-01 Eric F. Lock , David B. Dunson

Constructing decision trees online is a classical machine learning problem. Existing works often assume that features are readily available for each incoming data point. However, in many real world applications, both feature values and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Arman Rahbar , Ziyu Ye , Yuxin Chen , Morteza Haghir Chehreghani

We revisit the classical problem of Bayesian ensembles and address the challenge of learning optimal combinations of Bayesian models in an online, continual learning setting. To this end, we reinterpret existing approaches such as Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Daniel Waxman , Fernando Llorente , Petar M. Djurić

Consensus formation and difference of opinion have long been the subject of research. However, relevant laws and systems within society are being updated to reflect the changes in information networks. Online environment has come to fulfill…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-07-19 Yasuko Kawahata , Akira Ishii