Related papers: Estimating Counterfactual Matrix Means with Short …
We study a new model where the potential outcomes, corresponding to the values of a (possibly continuous) treatment, are linked through common factors. The factors can be estimated using a panel of regressors. We propose a procedure to…
Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and…
This paper introduces a simple framework of counterfactual estimation for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data, in which we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing counterfactual outcomes…
We develop a general framework for the identification of counterfactual parameters in a class of nonlinear semiparametric panel models with fixed effects and time effects. Our method applies to models for discrete outcomes (e.g., two-way…
This paper develops numerical and causal interpretations of two-way fixed effects (TWFE) regressions in settings with nonbinary, nonstaggered treatments and time-varying covariates. Using the equivalence between TWFE and pooled…
This paper proposes an imputation procedure that uses the factors estimated from a tall block along with the re-rotated loadings estimated from a wide block to impute missing values in a panel of data. Assuming that a strong factor…
Balanced representation learning methods have been applied successfully to counterfactual inference from observational data. However, approaches that account for survival outcomes are relatively limited. Survival data are frequently…
We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…
This paper focuses on estimating the coefficients and average partial effects of observed regressors in nonlinear panel data models with interactive fixed effects, using the common correlated effects (CCE) framework. The proposed two-step…
We study counterfactual regression, which aims to map input features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This is particularly useful for decision-making when adapting to sudden shifts in…
We consider after-study statistical inference for sequentially designed experiments wherein multiple units are assigned treatments for multiple time points using treatment policies that adapt over time. Our goal is to provide inference…
We propose a method of retrospective counterfactual imputation in panel data settings with later-treated and always-treated units, but no never-treated units. We use the observed outcomes to impute the counterfactual outcomes of the…
We study a panel data model with general heterogeneous effects where slopes are allowed to vary across both individuals and over time. The key dimension reduction assumption we employ is that the heterogeneous slopes can be expressed as…
For counterfactual policy evaluation, it is important to ensure that treatment parameters are relevant to policies in question. This is especially challenging under unobserved heterogeneity, as is well featured in the definition of the…
This paper considers fixed effects (FE) estimation for linear panel data models under possible model misspecification when both the number of individuals, $n$, and the number of time periods, $T$, are large. We first clarify the probability…
Counterfactual inference has become a ubiquitous tool in online advertisement, recommendation systems, medical diagnosis, and econometrics. Accurate modeling of outcome distributions associated with different interventions -- known as…
Counterfactual prediction methods are required when a model will be deployed in a setting where treatment policies differ from the setting where the model was developed, or when a model provides predictions under hypothetical interventions…
Two-way fixed effects (TWFE) models are widely used in political science to establish causality, but recent methodological discussions highlight their limitations under heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) and violations of the parallel…
We address the challenge of forecasting counterfactual outcomes in a panel data with missing entries and temporally dependent latent factors -- a common scenario in causal inference, where estimating unobserved potential outcomes ahead of…
We propose Deep Longitudinal Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation (Deep LTMLE), a novel approach to estimate the counterfactual mean of outcome under dynamic treatment policies in longitudinal problem settings. Our approach utilizes a…