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Hierarchical Bayesian models are increasingly used in large, inhomogeneous complex network dynamical systems by modeling parameters as draws from a hyperparameter-governed distribution. However, theoretical guarantees for these estimates as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-23 Yi Yu , Yubo Hou , Yinchong Wang , Nan Zhang , Jianfeng Feng , Wenlian Lu

Bayesian optimization is an advanced tool to perform ecient global optimization It consists on enriching iteratively surrogate Kriging models of the objective and the constraints both supposed to be computationally expensive of the targeted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-14 Robin Grapin , Youssef Diouane , Joseph Morlier , Nathalie Bartoli , Thierry Lefebvre , Paul Saves , Jasper Bussemaker

It is commonly believed that Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithms are highly efficient for optimizing numerically costly functions. However, BO is not often compared to widely different alternatives, and is mostly tested on narrow sets of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-01 Rodolphe Le Riche , Victor Picheny

Bayesian methods lie at the heart of modern data science and provide a powerful scaffolding for estimation in data-constrained settings and principled quantification and propagation of uncertainty. Yet in many real-world use cases where…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Sitan Chen , Jingqiu Ding , Mahbod Majid , Walter McKelvie

Asynchronous Bayesian optimization is widely used for gradient-free optimization in domains with independent parallel experiments and varying evaluation times. Existing methods posit that standard acquisitions lead to redundant and repeated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-17 Ben Riegler , James Odgers , Vincent Fortuin

We propose practical extensions to Bayesian optimization for solving dynamic problems. We model dynamic objective functions using spatiotemporal Gaussian process priors which capture all the instances of the functions over time. Our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-12 Favour M. Nyikosa , Michael A. Osborne , Stephen J. Roberts

Bayesian optimisation (BO) uses probabilistic surrogate models - usually Gaussian processes (GPs) - for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. At each BO iteration, the GP hyperparameters are fit to previously-evaluated data by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-04 George De Ath , Richard Everson , Jonathan Fieldsend

Bayesian optimisation has proven to be a powerful tool for expensive global black-box optimisation problems. In this paper, we propose new Bayesian optimisation variants of the popular Knowledge Gradient acquisition functions for problems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-22 Xietao Wang Lin , Juan Ungredda , Max Butler , James Town , Alma Rahat , Hemant Singh , Juergen Branke

We consider Bayesian optimization of objective functions of the form $\rho[ F(x, W) ]$, where $F$ is a black-box expensive-to-evaluate function and $\rho$ denotes either the VaR or CVaR risk measure, computed with respect to the randomness…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-05 Sait Cakmak , Raul Astudillo , Peter Frazier , Enlu Zhou

Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes has become an increasingly popular tool in the machine learning community. It is efficient and can be used when very little is known about the objective function, making it popular in expensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2011-03-08 Eric Brochu , Matthew W. Hoffman , Nando de Freitas

Bayesian optimization (BO) has become a popular strategy for global optimization of many expensive real-world functions. Contrary to a common belief that BO is suited to optimizing black-box functions, it actually requires domain knowledge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-08 Zi Wang , George E. Dahl , Kevin Swersky , Chansoo Lee , Zelda Mariet , Zachary Nado , Justin Gilmer , Jasper Snoek , Zoubin Ghahramani

This article addresses the problem of derivative-free (single- or multi-objective) optimization subject to multiple inequality constraints. Both the objective and constraint functions are assumed to be smooth, non-linear and expensive to…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-28 Paul Feliot , Julien Bect , Emmanuel Vazquez

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-18 Hwanwoo Kim , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

A multi-fidelity simulator is a numerical model, in which one of the inputs controls a trade-off between the realism and the computational cost of the simulation. Our goal is to estimate the probability of exceeding a given threshold on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-31 Rémi Stroh , Julien Bect , Séverine Demeyer , Nicolas Fischer , Emmanuel Vazquez

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a class of sample-efficient global optimization methods, where a probabilistic model conditioned on previous observations is used to determine future evaluations via the optimization of an acquisition function.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-22 Eric Hans Lee , David Eriksson , Bolong Cheng , Michael McCourt , David Bindel

Modern epidemiological analytics increasingly use machine learning models that offer strong prediction but often lack calibrated uncertainty. Bayesian methods provide principled uncertainty quantification, yet are viewed as difficult to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-18 Debashis Chatterjee

Bayesian optimization has become a fundamental global optimization algorithm in many problems where sample efficiency is of paramount importance. Recently, there has been proposed a large number of new applications in fields such as…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-02-06 Ruben Martinez-Cantin

We developed a parallel Bayesian optimization algorithm for large eddy simulations. These simulations challenge optimization methods because they take hours or days to compute, and their objective function contains noise as turbulent…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2014-11-04 Chaitanya Talnikar , Patrick Blonigan , Julien Bodart , Qiqi Wang

When applying Machine Learning techniques to problems, one must select model parameters to ensure that the system converges but also does not become stuck at the objective function's local minimum. Tuning these parameters becomes a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-16 Lawrence Stewart , Mark Stalzer

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a data-driven strategy for minimizing/maximizing black-box functions based on probabilistic surrogate models. In the presence of safety constraints, the performance of BO crucially relies on tight probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-15 Oleksii Molodchyk , Johannes Teutsch , Timm Faulwasser
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