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Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Oliver L. Pescott , Robin J. Boyd , Gary D. Powney , Gavin B. Stewart

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used to support prognosis in Alzheimer's disease (AD), but adoption remains limited due to a lack of transparency and interpretability, particularly for long-term predictions where uncertainty is…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Jonatan Reyes , Mina Massoumi , Anil Ufuk Batmaz , Marta Kersten-Oertel

Despite the remarkable progress in generative modelling, current diffusion models lack a quantitative approach to assess image quality. To address this limitation, we propose to estimate the pixel-wise aleatoric uncertainty during the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Michele De Vita , Vasileios Belagiannis

Uncertainty quantification plays an important role in achieving trustworthy and reliable learning-based computational imaging. Recent advances in generative modeling and Bayesian neural networks have enabled the development of…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-07 Canberk Ekmekci , Mujdat Cetin

As data-driven intelligent systems advance, the need for reliable and transparent decision-making mechanisms has become increasingly important. Therefore, it is essential to integrate uncertainty quantification and model explainability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-13 Nijat Mehdiyev , Maxim Majlatow , Peter Fettke

Explainability and interpretability of AI models is an essential factor affecting the safety of AI. While various explainable AI (XAI) approaches aim at mitigating the lack of transparency in deep networks, the evidence of the effectiveness…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Kamran Alipour , Jurgen P. Schulze , Yi Yao , Avi Ziskind , Giedrius Burachas

As Machine Learning models are considered for autonomous decisions with significant social impact, the need for understanding how these models work rises rapidly. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to provide interpretations for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-05 Jaime Pizarroso , David Alfaya , José Portela , Antonio Muñoz

Counterfactual explanations are widely used to interpret machine learning predictions by identifying minimal changes to input features that would alter a model's decision. However, most existing counterfactual methods have not been tested…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Leonidas Christodoulou , Chang Sun

Explainable AI (XAI) aims to make the behaviour of machine learning models interpretable, yet many explanation methods remain difficult to understand. The integration of Natural Language Generation into XAI aims to deliver explanations in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Mateusz Cedro , David Martens

Accurately estimating uncertainties in neural network predictions is of great importance in building trusted DNNs-based models, and there is an increasing interest in providing accurate uncertainty estimation on many tasks, such as security…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Yukun Ding , Jinglan Liu , Jinjun Xiong , Yiyu Shi

We present a critical survey on the consistency of uncertainty quantification used in deep learning and highlight partial uncertainty coverage and many inconsistencies. We then provide a comprehensive and statistically consistent framework…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Peter Jan van Leeuwen , J. Christine Chiu , C. Kevin Yang

One of the ways to make artificial intelligence more natural is to give it some room for doubt. Two main questions should be resolved in that way. First, how to train a model to estimate uncertainties of its own predictions? And then, what…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Alexey Kornaev , Elena Kornaeva , Oleg Ivanov , Ilya Pershin , Danis Alukaev

In this paper we focus on the problem of assigning uncertainties to single-point predictions generated by a deterministic model that outputs a continuous variable. This problem applies to any state-of-the-art physics or engineering models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-12 Enrico Camporeale , Algo Carè

Many high-performance models suffer from a lack of interpretability. There has been an increasing influx of work on explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) in order to disentangle what is meant and expected by XAI. Nevertheless, there is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-23 Adrien Bennetot , Jean-Luc Laurent , Raja Chatila , Natalia Díaz-Rodríguez

This paper proposes a fast and scalable method for uncertainty quantification of machine learning models' predictions. First, we show the principled way to measure the uncertainty of predictions for a classifier based on Nadaraya-Watson's…

Counterfactual explanations have emerged as a prominent method in Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), providing intuitive and actionable insights into Machine Learning model decisions. In contrast to other traditional feature…

Knowing the uncertainty in a prediction is critical when making expensive investment decisions and when patient safety is paramount, but machine learning (ML) models in drug discovery typically provide only a single best estimate and ignore…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Stanley E. Lazic , Dominic P. Williams

We address the task of probabilistic anomaly attribution in the black-box regression setting, where the goal is to compute the probability distribution of the attribution score of each input variable, given an observed anomaly. The training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-10 Tsuyoshi Idé , Naoki Abe

We propose a probabilistic enhancement of standard kernel Support Vector Machines for binary classification, in order to address the case when, along with given data sets, a description of uncertainty (e.g., error bounds) may be available…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-19 Yongxin Chen , Tryphon T. Georgiou , Allen R. Tannenbaum

Causality has traditionally been a scientific way to generate knowledge by relating causes to effects. From an imaginery point of view, causal graphs are a helpful tool for representing and infering new causal information. In previous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-02-07 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , C. Puente , A. Sobrino , J. A. Olivas
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