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To disentangle the complex non-stationary dependence structure of precipitation extremes over the entire contiguous U.S., we propose a flexible local approach based on factor copula models. Our sub-asymptotic spatial modeling framework…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-26 Daniela Castro-Camilo , Raphaël Huser

We study the identifiability of parameters and falsifiability of predictions under the process of model expansion in a Bayesian setting. Identifiability is represented by the closeness of the posterior to the prior distribution and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-15 Collin Cademartori

Being the limits of copulas of componentwise maxima in independent random samples, extreme-value copulas can be considered to provide appropriate models for the dependence structure between rare events. Extreme-value copulas not only arise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-12-07 Gordon Gudendorf , Johan Segers

A key sticking point of Bayesian analysis is the choice of prior distribution, and there is a vast literature on potential defaults including uniform priors, Jeffreys' priors, reference priors, maximum entropy priors, and weakly informative…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-22 Andrew Gelman , Daniel Simpson , Michael Betancourt

Thanks to their ability to capture complex dependence structures, copulas are frequently used to glue random variables into a joint model with arbitrary marginal distributions. More recently, they have been applied to solve statistical…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-22 Thomas Nagler , Thibault Vatter

In high dimensional regression, global local shrinkage priors have gained significant traction for their ability to yield sparse estimates, improve parameter recovery, and support accurate predictive modeling. While recent work has explored…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 Javier Enrique Aguilar , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-26 J G Liao , Arthur Berg , Timothy L McMurry

Bayesian networks, and especially their structures, are powerful tools for representing conditional independencies and dependencies between random variables. In applications where related variables form a priori known groups, chosen to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-02 Pekka Parviainen , Samuel Kaski

The minimization of some multivariate risk indicators may be used as an allocation method, as proposed in C\'enac et al. [6]. The aim of capital allocation is to choose a point in a simplex, according to a given criterion. In a previous…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-07 Véronique Maume-Deschamps , Didier Rullière , Khalil Said

This article presents factor copula approaches to model temporal dependency of non-Gaussian (continuous/discrete) longitudinal data. Factor copula models are canonical vine copulas which explain the underlying dependence structure of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Subhajit Chattopadhyay

Expected-posterior priors (EPP) have been proved to be extremely useful for testing hypothesis on the regression coefficients of normal linear models. One of the advantages of using EPPs is that impropriety of baseline priors causes no…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-02 Dimitris Fouskakis , Ioannis Ntzoufras

This paper introduces an innovative method for constructing copula models capable of describing arbitrary non-monotone dependence structures. The proposed method enables the creation of such copulas in parametric form, thus allowing the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-26 Manfred Marvin Marchione , Fabio Baione

In situations where both extreme and non-extreme data are of interest, modelling the whole data set accurately is important. In a univariate framework, modelling the bulk and tail of a distribution has been extensively studied before.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-11 Lídia M. André , Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Adrian O'Hagan

Parametric copula families have been known to flexibly capture various dependence patterns, e.g., either positive or negative dependence in either the lower or upper tails of bivariate distributions. In this paper, our objective is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Ruyi Pan , Luis E. Nieto-Barajas , Radu Craiu

Copulas have become an important tool in the modern best practice Enterprise Risk Management, often supplanting other approaches to modelling stochastic dependence. However, choosing the `right' copula is not an easy task, and the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-10 Jianxi Su , Edward Furman

This work studies the large sample properties of the posterior-based inference in the curved exponential family under increasing dimension. The curved structure arises from the imposition of various restrictions on the model, such as moment…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-05 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov

Specifying a Bayesian prior is notoriously difficult for complex models such as neural networks. Reasoning about parameters is made challenging by the high-dimensionality and over-parameterization of the space. Priors that seem benign and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-22 Eric Nalisnick , Jonathan Gordon , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

This manuscript is concerned with relating two approaches that can be used to explore complex dependence structures between categorical variables, namely Bayesian partitioning of the covariate space incorporating a variable selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-06 Michail Papathomas , Sylvia Richardson

We review common situations in Bayesian latent variable models where the prior distribution that a researcher specifies differs from the prior distribution used during estimation. These situations can arise from the positive definite…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-19 Edgar C. Merkle , Oludare Ariyo , Sonja D. Winter , Mauricio Garnier-Villarreal

We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-07 Joel Janek Dabrowski , Daniel Edward Pagendam
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