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We study the problem of selling an asset near its ultimate maximum in the minimax setting. The regret-based notion of a perfect stopping time is introduced. A perfect stopping time is uniquely characterized by its optimality properties and…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-07-15 Dmitry B. Rokhlin

This work studies online episodic tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) with known transitions and develops best-of-both-worlds algorithms that achieve refined data-dependent regret bounds in the adversarial regime and variance-dependent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Mingyi Li , Taira Tsuchiya , Kenji Yamanishi

We provide an algorithm that achieves the optimal regret rate in an unknown weakly communicating Markov Decision Process (MDP). The algorithm proceeds in episodes where, in each episode, it picks a policy using regularization based on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Peter L. Bartlett , Ambuj Tewari

An important problem in sequential decision-making under uncertainty is to use limited data to compute a safe policy, i.e., a policy that is guaranteed to perform at least as well as a given baseline strategy. In this paper, we develop and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-14 Marek Petrik , Yinlam Chow , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh

Early stopping based on hold-out data is a popular regularization technique designed to mitigate overfitting and increase the predictive accuracy of neural networks. Models trained with early stopping often provide relatively accurate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-28 Ziyi Liang , Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

We study the problem of learning 'good' interventions in a stochastic environment modeled by its underlying causal graph. Good interventions refer to interventions that maximize rewards. Specifically, we consider the setting of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Fateme Jamshidi , Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash

This guide provides a reference for high-probability regret bounds in empirical risk minimization (ERM). The presentation is modular: we begin with intuition and general proof strategies, then state broadly applicable guarantees under…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Lars van der Laan

We consider the classical problems of estimating the mean of an $n$-dimensional normally (with identity covariance matrix) or Poisson distributed vector under the squared loss. In a Bayesian setting the optimal estimator is given by the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-13 Yury Polyanskiy , Yihong Wu

In this paper, we explore the interplay between Predictive Control and closed-loop optimality, spanning from Model Predictive Control to Data-Driven Predictive Control. Predictive Control in general relies on some form of prediction scheme…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-29 Akhil S Anand , Shambhuraj Sawant , Dirk Reinhardt , Sebastien Gros

We apply classical statistical decision theory to a large class of treatment choice problems with partial identification. We show that, in a general class of problems with Gaussian likelihood, all decision rules are admissible; it is…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-24 José Luis Montiel Olea , Chen Qiu , Jörg Stoye

We study a broad class of assortment optimization problems in an offline and data-driven setting. In such problems, a firm lacks prior knowledge of the underlying choice model, and aims to determine an optimal assortment based on historical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Juncheng Dong , Weibin Mo , Zhengling Qi , Cong Shi , Ethan X. Fang , Vahid Tarokh

We study the $K$-armed dueling bandit problem, a variation of the standard stochastic bandit problem where the feedback is limited to relative comparisons of a pair of arms. We introduce a tight asymptotic regret lower bound that is based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-30 Junpei Komiyama , Junya Honda , Hisashi Kashima , Hiroshi Nakagawa

We consider the problem of online control of systems with time-varying linear dynamics. This is a general formulation that is motivated by the use of local linearization in control of nonlinear dynamical systems. To state meaningful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-15 Paula Gradu , Elad Hazan , Edgar Minasyan

We consider the classical problem of prediction with expert advice. In the fixed-time setting, where the time horizon is known in advance, algorithms that achieve the optimal regret are known when there are two, three, or four experts or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-30 Nicholas J. A. Harvey , Christopher Liaw , Edwin Perkins , Sikander Randhawa

This paper derives an optimal control strategy for a simple stochastic dynamical system with constant drift and an additive control input. Motivated by the example of a physical system with an unexpected change in its dynamics, we take the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-02-09 Daniel Gurevich , Debdipta Goswami , Charles L. Fefferman , Clarence W. Rowley

We investigate the distributed DC-Optimal Power Flow (DC-OPF) problem for a dynamic and uncertain environment. The unpredictable supply of renewable resources and varying prices of the electricity market are a few factors responsible for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-10 Sushobhan Chatterjee , Rachel Kalpana Kalaimani

This work considered an online distributed optimization problem, with a group of agents whose local objective functions vary with time. Moreover, the value of the objective function is revealed to the corresponding agent after the decision…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-08-16 Yipeng Pang , Guoqiang Hu

We consider an agent interacting with an environment in a single stream of actions, observations, and rewards, with no reset. This process is not assumed to be a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Rather, the agent has several representations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-03-19 Odalric-Ambrym Maillard , Phuong Nguyen , Ronald Ortner , Daniil Ryabko

In this paper, we consider a best action identification problem in the stochastic linear bandit setup with a fixed confident constraint. In the considered best action identification problem, instead of minimizing the accumulative regret as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-04 Jun Geng , Lifeng Lai

We study variance-dependent regret bounds for Markov decision processes (MDPs). Algorithms with variance-dependent regret guarantees can automatically exploit environments with low variance (e.g., enjoying constant regret on deterministic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-23 Runlong Zhou , Zihan Zhang , Simon S. Du