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Modeling disease progression through multiple stages is critical for clinical decision-making for chronic diseases, e.g., cancer, diabetes, chronic kidney diseases, and so on. Existing approaches often model the disease progression as a…
Prediction of the future trajectory of a disease is an important challenge for personalized medicine and population health management. However, many complex chronic diseases exhibit large degrees of heterogeneity, and furthermore there is…
Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…
Markov state models (MSMs) have become a popular approach for investigating the conformational dynamics of proteins and other biomolecules. MSMs are typically built from numerous molecular dynamics simulations by dividing the sampled…
In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable…
We consider the efficient estimation of the semiparametric additive transformation model with current status data. A wide range of survival models and econometric models can be incorporated into this general transformation framework. We…
This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used…
A possibly time-dependent transition intensity matrix or generator $(Q(t))$ characterizes the law of a Markov jump process (MP). For a time homogeneous MP, the transition probability matrix (TPM) can be expressed as a matrix exponential of…
Regression models are used in a wide range of applications providing a powerful scientific tool for researchers from different fields. Linear, or simple parametric, models are often not sufficient to describe complex relationships between…
We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…
We propose sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for sampling the posterior distribution of state-space models under highly informative observation regimes, a situation in which standard SMC methods can perform poorly. A special case is…
Additive smooth models, such as Generalized additive models (GAMs) of location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), are a popular choice for modeling experimental data. However, software available to fit such models is usually not tailored…
Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models are ubiquitous in statistics, econometrics, information engineering and signal processing. Particle methods, also known as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, provide reliable numerical…
In this paper, we present a Bayesian multipath-based simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) algorithm that continuously adapts interacting multiple models (IMM) parameters to describe the mobile agent state dynamics. The…
We deal with the estimation of the regime number in a linear Gaussian autoregressive process with a Markov regime (AR-MR). The problem of estimating the number of regimes in this type of series is that of determining the number of states in…
We propose an analytic approach for the steady-state dynamics of Markov processes on locally tree-like graphs. It is based on time-translation invariant probability distributions for edge trajectories, which we encode in terms of infinite…
We propose the Gaussian-Linear Hidden Markov model (GLHMM), a generalisation of different types of HMMs commonly used in neuroscience. In short, the GLHMM is a general framework where linear regression is used to flexibly parameterise the…
State-space models (SSMs) are a highly expressive model class for learning patterns in time series data and for system identification. Deterministic versions of SSMs (e.g. LSTMs) proved extremely successful in modeling complex time series…
Time series of matrix-valued data are increasingly available in various areas including economics, finance, social science, among others. These data may shed light on the inter-dynamical relationships between two sets of attributes, for…
We propose a novel method to model nonlinear regression problems by adapting the principle of penalization to Partial Least Squares (PLS). Starting with a generalized additive model, we expand the additive component of each variable in…