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Fitting models to data to obtain distributions of consistent parameter values is important for uncertainty quantification, model comparison, and prediction. Standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches for fitting ordinary…

Computation · Statistics 2025-09-05 Chris Chi , Jonathan Weare , Aaron R. Dinner

MCMC methods (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) are a class of methods used to perform simulations per a probability distribution $P$. These methods are often used when we have difficulties to directly sample per a given probability distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-01-21 Papa Ngom , Badiassiatta Don Bosco Diatta

Particle MCMC is a class of algorithms that can be used to analyse state-space models. They use MCMC moves to update the parameters of the models, and particle filters to propose values for the path of the state-space model. Currently the…

Computation · Statistics 2014-12-25 Chris Nemeth , Paul Fearnhead

Despite the enormous success of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and related Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, sampling often still represents the computational bottleneck in scientific applications. Availability of parallel resources can…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-26 Jakob Robnik , Uroš Seljak

We introduce a novel framework for efficient sampling from complex, unnormalised target distributions by exploiting multiscale dynamics. Traditional score-based sampling methods either rely on learned approximations of the score function or…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-04 Paula Cordero-Encinar , Andrew B. Duncan , Sebastian Reich , O. Deniz Akyildiz

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

We present a molecular simulation method to simultaneously find multiple transition pathways, and their associated free-energy profiles. The scheme extends path-metadynamics (PMD) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 109, 020601 (2012)] with multiple paths…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-06-23 Alberto Pérez de Alba Ortíz , Bernd Ensing

Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference and optimization in statistics, signal processing and machine learning. A well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In order to foster…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-27 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander , F. Louzada

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-30 Alberto Pasanisi , Shuai Fu , Nicolas Bousquet

We propose a new Monte Carlo method for sampling from multimodal distributions. The idea of this technique is based on splitting the task into two: finding the modes of a target distribution $\pi$ and sampling, given the knowledge of the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-01-14 Emilia Pompe , Chris Holmes , Krzysztof Łatuszyński

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-30 Eduardo F. Mendes , Christopher K. Carter , David Gunawan , Robert Kohn

In this paper we consider fully Bayesian inference in general state space models. Existing particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms use an augmented model that takes into account all the variable sampled in a sequential Monte…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-31 Christopher K. Carter , Eduardo F. Mendes , Robert Kohn

Molecular dynamics is a powerful tool for studying the thermodynamics and kinetics of complex molecular events. However, these simulations can rarely sample the required time scales in practice. Transition path sampling overcomes this…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-07-31 Gianmarco Lazzeri , Hendrik Jung , Peter G. Bolhuis , Roberto Covino

A Markov chain update scheme using a machine-learned flow-based generative model is proposed for Monte Carlo sampling in lattice field theories. The generative model may be optimized (trained) to produce samples from a distribution…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2019-09-10 M. S. Albergo , G. Kanwar , P. E. Shanahan

Piecewise-Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) hold significant promise for sampling from complex probability distributions. However, their practical implementation is hindered by the need to compute model-specific bounds. Conversely,…

Computation · Statistics 2025-03-17 Augustin Chevallier , Sam Power , Matthew Sutton

The design of the proposal distributions, and most notably the kernel parameters, are crucial for the performance of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) rendering. A poor selection of parameters can increase the correlation of the Markov chain…

We present an algorithm to sample stochastic differential equations conditioned on rather general constraints, including integral constraints, endpoint constraints, and stochastic integral constraints. The algorithm is a pathspace…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-23 Tobias Grafke

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are popular when considering sampling from a high-dimensional random variable $\mathbf{x}$ with possibly unnormalised probability density $p$ and observed data $\mathbf{d}$. However, MCMC requires…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-11 Haoyun Ying , Keheng Mao , Klaus Mosegaard

We propose a novel path sampling method based on the Onsager-Machlup (OM) action by generalizing the multiscale enhanced sampling (MSES) technique suggested by Moritsugu and coworkers (J. Chem. Phys. 133, 224105 (2010)). The basic idea of…

Biological Physics · Physics 2015-06-15 Hiroshi Fujisaki , Motoyuki Shiga , Kei Moritsugu , Akinori Kidera

The Linear Ballistic Accumulator (Brown & Heathcote, 2008) model is used as a measurement tool to answer questions about applied psychology. The analyses based on this model depend upon the model selected and its estimated parameters.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-03 David Gunawan , Guy E. Hawkins , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Robert Kohn , Scott Brown
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