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Datasets collected from the open world unavoidably suffer from various forms of randomness or noiseness, leading to the ubiquity of aleatoric (data) uncertainty. Quantifying such uncertainty is particularly pivotal for object detection,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-28 Peng Cui , Guande He , Dan Zhang , Zhijie Deng , Yinpeng Dong , Jun Zhu

Rigorous statistical methods, including parameter estimation with accompanying uncertainties, underpin the validity of scientific discovery, especially in the natural sciences. With increasingly complex data models such as deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Aurora Grefsrud , Nello Blaser , Trygve Buanes

Modelling uncertainty in Machine Learning models is essential for achieving safe and reliable predictions. Most research on uncertainty focuses on output uncertainty (predictions), but minimal attention is paid to uncertainty at inputs. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-28 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Ivo Pascal de Jong , Marco Zullich

Even though Bayesian neural networks offer a promising framework for modeling uncertainty, active learning and incorporating prior physical knowledge, few applications of them can be found in the context of interatomic force modeling. One…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-04-10 Tim Rensmeyer , Benjamin Craig , Denis Kramer , Oliver Niggemann

Many important problems in the real world don't have unique solutions. It is thus important for machine learning models to be capable of proposing different plausible solutions with meaningful probability measures. In this work we introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-28 Di Qiu , Lok Ming Lui

Modelling the behaviour of highly nonlinear dynamical systems with robust uncertainty quantification is a challenging task which typically requires approaches specifically designed to address the problem at hand. We introduce a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-25 Thomas Baldwin-McDonald , Mauricio A. Álvarez

Decomposing prediction uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) components is critical for the reliable deployment of machine learning systems. While the mutual information between the response variable and model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Anchit Jain , Stephen Bates

Advanced deep learning methods have shown remarkable success in power quality disturbance (PQD) classification. To enhance model transparency, explainable AI (XAI) techniques have been developed to provide instance-specific interpretations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Yinsong Chen , Samson S. Yu , Kashem M. Muttaqi

Machine learning methods and uncertainty quantification have been gaining interest throughout the last several years in low-energy nuclear physics. In particular, Gaussian processes and Bayesian Neural Networks have increasingly been…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2022-07-27 A. E. Lovell , A. T. Mohan , T. M. Sprouse , M. R. Mumpower

Neural network potentials (NNPs) combine the computational efficiency of classical interatomic potentials with the high accuracy and flexibility of the ab initio methods used to create the training set, but can also result in unphysical…

Materials Science · Physics 2022-01-24 Leonid Kahle , Federico Zipoli

Precise probabilistic forecasts are fundamental for energy risk management, and there is a wide range of both statistical and machine learning models for this purpose. Inherent to these probabilistic models is some form of uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Andreas Lebedev , Abhinav Das , Sven Pappert , Stephan Schlüter

Free energies are fundamental quantities governing phase behavior and thermodynamic stability in polymer systems, yet their accurate computation often requires extensive simulations and post-processing techniques such as the Bennett…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2026-03-19 Ian Chen , Alfredo Alexander-Katz

Neural networks are ubiquitous in many tasks, but trusting their predictions is an open issue. Uncertainty quantification is required for many applications, and disentangled aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are best. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-21 Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Daniel Saromo

A physics-informed neural network is presented for poroelastic problems with coupled flow and deformation processes. The governing equilibrium and mass balance equations are discussed and specific derivations for two-dimensional cases are…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2020-10-30 Yared W. Bekele

Humans possess a finely tuned sense of uncertainty that helps anticipate potential errors, vital for adaptive behavior and survival. However, the underlying neural mechanisms remain unclear. This study applies moment neural networks (MNNs)…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-11-22 Hengyuan Ma , Wenlian Lu , Jianfeng Feng

Evaluation of predictive deep learning (DL) models beyond conventional performance metrics has become increasingly important for applications in sensitive environments like healthcare. Such models might have the capability to encode and…

Many tasks in natural language processing involve predicting structured outputs, e.g., sequence labeling, semantic role labeling, parsing, and machine translation. Researchers are increasingly applying deep representation learning to these…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-10-07 Lifu Tu , Tianyu Liu , Kevin Gimpel

Training deep neural networks (DNNs) from noisy labels is an important and challenging task. However, most existing approaches focus on the corrupted labels and ignore the importance of inherent data structure. To bridge the gap between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-03 Zijia Wang , Wenbin Yang , Zhisong Liu , Zhen Jia

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in neural network predictions remains a central challenge for scientific applications involving high-dimensional, correlated data. While existing methods capture either aleatoric or epistemic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Harrison J. Goldwyn , Mitchell Krock , Johann Rudi , Daniel Getter , Julie Bessac

Machine learning potentials have become an important tool for atomistic simulations in many fields, from chemistry via molecular biology to materials science. Most of the established methods, however, rely on local properties and are thus…

Materials Science · Physics 2021-03-17 Tsz Wai Ko , Jonas A. Finkler , Stefan Goedecker , Jörg Behler