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Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process. Mean-variance estimation networks can learn this type of uncertainty but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Jiaxiang Yi , Miguel A. Bessa

There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-10-06 Alex Kendall , Yarin Gal

Inexpensive machine learning potentials are increasingly being used to speed up structural optimization and molecular dynamics simulations of materials by iteratively predicting and applying interatomic forces. In these settings, it is…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-09-12 Jonas Busk , Mikkel N. Schmidt , Ole Winther , Tejs Vegge , Peter Bjørn Jørgensen

Machine-learning force fields enable an accurate and universal description of the potential energy surface of molecules and materials on the basis of a training set of ab initio data. However, large-scale applications of these methods rest…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-07-25 Valerio Briganti , Alessandro Lunghi

Computational modeling is an integral part of catalysis research. With it, new methodologies are being developed and implemented to improve the accuracy of simulations while reducing the computational cost. In particular, specific…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-08-28 Alexandre Boucher , Cameron Beevers , Bertrand Gauthier , Alberto Roldan

Neural-network-based machine learning interatomic potentials have emerged as powerful tools for predicting atomic energies and forces, enabling accurate and efficient simulations in atomistic modeling. A key limitation of traditional deep…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-09-24 Riccardo Farris , Emanuele Telari , Nongnuch Artrith , Konstantin Neyman , Albert Bruix

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and materials properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-05-10 Albert Zhu , Simon Batzner , Albert Musaelian , Boris Kozinsky

Computational chemistry has come a long way over the course of several decades, enabling subatomic level calculations particularly with the development of Density Functional Theory (DFT). Recently, machine-learned potentials (MLP) have…

Machine-learning models in chemistry - when based on descriptors of atoms embedded within molecules - face essential challenges in transferring the quality of predictions of local electronic structures and their associated properties across…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-09-27 Frederik Ø. Kjeldal , Janus J. Eriksen

Data-driven methods based on machine learning have the potential to accelerate computational analysis of atomic structures. In this context, reliable uncertainty estimates are important for assessing confidence in predictions and enabling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-04 Jonas Busk , Peter Bjørn Jørgensen , Arghya Bhowmik , Mikkel N. Schmidt , Ole Winther , Tejs Vegge

Equation learning aims to infer differential equation models from data. While a number of studies have shown that differential equation models can be successfully identified when the data are sufficiently detailed and corrupted with…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-30 Simon Martina-Perez , Matthew J. Simpson , Ruth E. Baker

The use of machine learning to estimate the energy of a group of atoms, and the forces that drive them to more stable configurations, has revolutionized the fields of computational chemistry and materials discovery. In this domain, rigorous…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-10-28 Filippo Bigi , Marcel Langer , Michele Ceriotti

Due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications, many of which are coming with safety requirements, the notion of uncertainty has received increasing attention in machine learning research in the last…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-06 Mohammad Hossein Shaker , Eyke Hüllermeier

Reinforcement learning agents are faced with two types of uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty stems from limited data and is useful for exploration, whereas aleatoric uncertainty arises from stochastic environments and must be accounted for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-10 William R. Clements , Bastien Van Delft , Benoît-Marie Robaglia , Reda Bahi Slaoui , Sébastien Toth

A machine learning technique is proposed for quantifying uncertainty in power system dynamics with spatiotemporally correlated stochastic forcing. We learn one-dimensional linear partial differential equations for the probability density…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Tyler E. Maltba , Vishwas Rao , Daniel Adrian Maldonado

Deep learning models have exhibited superior performance in predictive tasks with the explosively increasing Electronic Health Records (EHR). However, due to the lack of transparency, behaviors of deep learning models are difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Riyi Qiu , Yugang Jia , Mirsad Hadzikadic , Michael Dulin , Xi Niu , Xin Wang

Image reconstruction methods based on deep neural networks have shown outstanding performance, equalling or exceeding the state-of-the-art results of conventional approaches, but often do not provide uncertainty information about the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Riccardo Barbano , Željko Kereta , Chen Zhang , Andreas Hauptmann , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

Neural network (NN) interatomic potentials provide fast prediction of potential energy surfaces, closely matching the accuracy of the electronic structure methods used to produce the training data. However, NN predictions are only reliable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Daniel Schwalbe-Koda , Aik Rui Tan , Rafael Gómez-Bombarelli

Machine learning potentials have become increasingly successful in atomistic simulations. Many of these potentials are based on an atomistic representation in a local environment, but an efficient description of non-local interactions that…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2024-10-01 Yibin Wu , Junfan Xia , Yaolong Zhang , Bin Jiang
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