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Machine learning (ML) estimates of conditional average treatment effects (CATE) can guide policy decisions, either by allowing targeting of individuals with beneficial CATE estimates, or as inputs to decision trees that optimise overall…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-04 Julia Hatamyar , Noemi Kreif

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is important to tailor treatments to those individuals who would most likely benefit. However, conditional average treatment effect predictors may often be trained on one population but possibly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christoph Kern , Michael Kim , Angela Zhou

Survival analysis of right censored data arises often in many areas of research including medical research. Effect of covariates (and their interactions) on survival distribution can be studied through existing methods which requires to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-11 Madan Gopal Kundu , Samiran Ghosh

The Predictive Approaches to Treatment Effect Heterogeneity statement focused on baseline risk as a robust predictor of treatment effect and provided guidance on risk-based assessment of treatment effect heterogeneity in the RCT setting.…

Average and conditional treatment effects are fundamental causal quantities used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments in various critical applications, including clinical settings and policy-making. Beyond the gold-standard…

This study proposes an end-to-end algorithm for policy learning in causal inference. We observe data consisting of covariates, treatment assignments, and outcomes, where only the outcome corresponding to the assigned treatment is observed.…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-30 Masahiro Kato

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) for survival outcomes has gained increasing attention, as it captures the variation in treatment efficacy across patients or subgroups in delaying disease progression. However, most existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-27 Na Bo , Ying Ding

Heterogeneity and comorbidity are two interwoven challenges associated with various healthcare problems that greatly hampered research on developing effective treatment and understanding of the underlying neurobiological mechanism. Very few…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Richard A Watson , Hengrui Cai , Xinming An , Samuel McLean , Rui Song

This paper develops a performant Bayesian approach to conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation in regression discontinuity designs (RDD), an increasingly prevalent form of quasi-experiment that facilitates causal inference.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-18 Rafael Alcantara , P. Richard Hahn , Hedibert F. Lopes

Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are ideal for estimating causal effects, because the distributions of background covariates are similar in expectation across treatment groups. When estimating causal effects using observational data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-27 Anthony D. Scotina , Roee Gutman

We address a core problem in causal inference: estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using panel data with general treatment patterns. Many existing methods either do not utilize the potential underlying structure in panel data or have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-11 Retsef Levi , Elisabeth Paulson , Georgia Perakis , Emily Zhang

Inferring the heterogeneous treatment effect is a fundamental problem in the sciences and commercial applications. In this paper, we focus on estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE), that is, the difference in the conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-23 Haomiao Meng , Xingye Qiao

Analyzing data from multiple sources offers valuable opportunities to improve the estimation efficiency of causal estimands. However, this analysis also poses many challenges due to population heterogeneity and data privacy constraints.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-23 Rong Zhao , Jason Falvey , Xu Shi , Vernon M. Chinchilli , Chixiang Chen

We develop a Gaussian-process mixture model for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation that leverages the use of transformed outcomes. The approach we will present attempts to improve point estimation and uncertainty quantification…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-19 Abbas Zaidi , Sayan Mukherjee

We identify the distributional and quantile marginal treatment effect functions when the outcome is right-censored. Our method requires a conditionally exogenous instrument and random censoring. We propose asymptotically consistent…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-17 Santiago Acerenza , Vitor Possebom , Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna

We propose a novel personalized concept for the optimal treatment selection for a situation where the response is a multivariate vector, that could contain right-censored variables such as survival time. The proposed method can be applied…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-03 Chathura Siriwardhana , K. B. Kulasekera , Somnath Datta

Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-16 Shenghao Wu , Wenbin Zhou , Minshuo Chen , Shixiang Zhu

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data is a crucial task across many fields, helping policy and decision-makers take better actions. There has been recent progress on robust and efficient methods for estimating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Miruna Oprescu , Jacob Dorn , Marah Ghoummaid , Andrew Jesson , Nathan Kallus , Uri Shalit

This paper presents a novel nonlinear regression model for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data, geared specifically towards situations with small effect sizes, heterogeneous effects, and strong confounding.…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-14 P. Richard Hahn , Jared S. Murray , Carlos Carvalho

This paper presents methods to study the causal effect of a binary treatment on a functional outcome with observational data. We define a Functional Average Treatment Effect and develop an outcome regression estimator. We show how to obtain…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-08 Kreske Ecker , Xavier de Luna , Lina Schelin
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