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Likelihood methods for measuring statistical evidence obey the likelihood principle while maintaining bounded and well-controlled frequency properties. These methods lend themselves to sequential study designs because they measure the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-07 Jeffrey D Blume , Leena Choi

In this paper, we propose a computer-oriented method of construction of optimal group sequential hypothesis tests with variable group sizes. In particular, for independent and identically distributed observations we obtain the form of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-30 Andrey Novikov

The hazard ratio is routinely used as a summary measure to assess the treatment effect in clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints. It is frequently assumed as constant over time although this assumption often does not hold. When the…

The Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model has been widely applied in survival analysis to estimate relative risks across different subjects given multiple covariates. Traditional CPH models rely on a linear combination of covariates weighted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Jiaxiang Cheng , Guoqiang Hu

Most statistical tests for treatment effects used in randomized clinical trials with survival outcomes are based on the proportional hazards assumption, which often fails in practice. Data from early exploratory studies may provide evidence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-28 Andrea Arfé , Brian Alexander , Lorenzo Trippa

Non-proportional hazards (NPH) have been observed in confirmatory clinical trials with time to event outcomes. Under NPH, the hazard ratio does not stay constant over time and the log-rank test is no longer the most powerful test. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Bharati Kumar , Jonathan W. Bartlett

One of the most common ways researchers compare survival outcomes across treatments when confounding is present is using Cox regression. This model is limited by its underlying assumption of proportional hazards; in some cases, substantial…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-02 Elizabeth A. Handorf , Marc Smaldone , Sujana Movva , Nandita Mitra

Adaptive designs have been proposed for clinical trials in which the nuisance parameters or alternative of interest are unknown or likely to be misspecified before the trial. Whereas most previous works on adaptive designs and mid-course…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-05-18 Jay Bartroff , Tze Leung Lai

Network meta-analysis (NMA) is widely used in healthcare decision-making, where estimates of the effect of multiple treatments on outcomes are required. For time-to-event outcomes such as survival or disease progression the most common…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 David M. Phillippo , Ayman Sadek , Hugo Pedder , Nicky J. Welton

The win ratio is increasingly used in randomized trials due to its intuitive clinical interpretation, ability to incorporate the relative importance of composite endpoints, and its capacity for combining different types of outcomes (e.g.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-02 Tracy Bergemann , Tim Hanson

A group sequential clinical trial design can be an attractive option when planning a pivotal trial as this approach has the ability to stop the trial early for success, whilst also being well accepted from a regulatory review perspective.…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-03 Fraser I Lewis

Identifying and characterizing relationships between treatments, exposures, or other covariates and time-to-event outcomes has great significance in a wide range of biomedical settings. In research areas such as multi-center clinical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-02 Hillary M. Heiling , Naim U. Rashid , Quefeng Li , Xianlu L. Peng , Jen Jen Yeh

When planning an oncology clinical trial, the usual approach is to assume proportional hazards and even an exponential distribution for time-to-event endpoints. Often, besides the gold-standard endpoint overall survival (OS),…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-19 Alexandra Erdmann , Jan Beyersmann , Kaspar Rufibach

Survival time is the primary endpoint of many randomized controlled trials, and a treatment effect is typically quantified by the hazard ratio under the assumption of proportional hazards. Awareness is increasing that in many settings this…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-04 Robin Ristl , Heiko Götte , Armin Schüler , Martin Posch , Franz König

The hazard ratio from the Cox proportional hazards model is a ubiquitous summary of treatment effect. However, when hazards are non-proportional, the hazard ratio can lose a stable causal interpretation and become study-dependent because it…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-17 Xiang Meng , Lu Tian , Kenneth Kehl , Hajime Uno

The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor from prior to posterior odds, is a principled measure of relative evidence for two competing hypotheses. It is naturally suited to sequential data analysis in settings such as clinical trials…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-07 Samuel Pawel , Leonhard Held

The Win Ratio has gained significant traction in cardiovascular trials as a novel method for analyzing composite endpoints (Pocock and others, 2012). Compared with conventional approaches based on time to the first event, the Win Ratio…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Baoshan Zhang , Yuan Wu

A fundamental concept in two-arm non-parametric survival analysis is the comparison of observed versus expected numbers of events on one of the treatment arms (the choice of which arm is arbitrary), where the expectation is taken assuming…

Applications · Statistics 2020-07-10 Dominic Magirr

Recently, methodology was presented to facilitate the incorporation of interim analyses in stepped-wedge (SW) cluster randomised trials (CRTs). Here, we extend this previous discussion. We detail how the stopping boundaries, allocation…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-28 Michael Grayling , David Robertson , James Wason , Adrian Mander

The classical approach to analyze time-to-event data, e.g. in clinical trials, is to fit Kaplan-Meier curves yielding the treatment effect as the hazard ratio between treatment groups. Afterwards commonly a log-rank test is performed in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-16 Kathrin Möllenhoff , Achim Tresch