Related papers: Rough volatility: evidence from range volatility e…
In this paper, we study the relationship between the short-end of the local and the implied volatility surfaces. Our results, based on Malliavin calculus techniques, recover the recent $\frac{1}{H+3/2}$ rule (where $H$ denotes the Hurst…
Small noise problems are quite important for all types of stochastic differential equations. In this paper we focus on rough differential equations driven by scaled fractional Brownian rough path with Hurst parameter H between 1/4 and 1/2.…
S&P 500 index data sampled at one-minute intervals over the course of 11.5 years (January 1989- May 2000) is analyzed, and in particular the Hurst parameter over segments of stationarity (the time period over which the Hurst parameter is…
We introduce stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a time-dependent nonnegative function of a reflecting diffusion. The idea to use reflecting diffusions as building blocks of the volatility came into being…
This paper develops a point impact linear regression model in which the trajectory of a continuous stochastic process, when evaluated at a sensitive time point, is associated with a scalar response. The proposed model complements and is…
This paper presents a new estimator of the global regularity index of a multifractional Brownian motion. Our estimation method is based upon a ratio statistic, which compares the realized global quadratic variation of a multifractional…
Volatility forecasting is crucial to risk management and portfolio construction. One particular challenge of assessing volatility forecasts is how to construct a robust proxy for the unknown true volatility. In this work, we show that the…
Volatility for financial assets returns can be used to gauge the risk for financial market. We propose a deep stochastic volatility model (DSVM) based on the framework of deep latent variable models. It uses flexible deep learning models to…
In this paper we derive lower bounds in minimax sense for estimation of the instantaneous volatility if the diffusion type part cannot be observed directly but under some additional Gaussian noise. Three different models are considered. Our…
This article is concerned with stochastic differential equations driven by a $d$ dimensional fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H>1/4$, understood in the rough paths sense. Whenever the coefficients of the equation satisfy a…
We perform an extensive empirical analysis of scaling properties of equity returns, suggesting that financial data show time varying multifractal properties. This is obtained by comparing empirical observations of the weighted generalised…
We study fractional stochastic volatility models in which the volatility process is a positive continuous function $\sigma$ of a continuous Gaussian process $\widehat{B}$. Forde and Zhang established a large deviation principle for the…
Sensitivity analysis w.r.t. the long-range/memory noise parameter for probability distributions of functionals of solutions to stochastic differential equations is an important stochastic modeling issue in many applications. In this paper…
We highlight a fundamental ill-posedness issue for nonlinear stochastic wave equations driven by a fractional noise. Namely, if the noise becomes too rough (i.e., the sum of its Hurst indexes becomes too small), then there is essentially no…
Understanding the statistical laws governing citation dynamics remains a fundamental challenge in network theory and the science of science. Citation networks typically exhibit in-degree distributions well approximated by log-normal…
The stochastic leverage effect, defined as the standardized covariation between the returns and their related volatility, is analyzed in a stochastic volatility model set-up. A novel estimator of the effect is defined using a pre-estimation…
We propose a new concept of modulated bipower variation for diffusion models with microstructure noise. We show that this method provides simple estimates for such important quantities as integrated volatility or integrated quarticity.…
We extend the application and test the performance of a recently introduced volatility prediction framework encompassing LSTM and rough volatility. Our asset class of interest is cryptocurrencies, at the beginning of the "crypto-winter" in…
Fractional Brownian motion, a Gaussian non-Markovian self-similar process with stationary long-correlated increments, has been identified to give rise to the anomalous diffusion behavior in a great variety of physical systems. The…
Working on different aspects of algorithmic trading we empirically discovered a new market invariant. It links together the volatility of the instrument with its traded volume, the average spread and the volume in the order book. The…