Related papers: A Conversation with A. Philip Dawid
Efforts to combat continuing gender inequalities in academia need to be informed by evidence about where differences occur. Citations are relevant as potential evidence in appointment and promotion decisions, but it is unclear whether there…
The Lamport diagram is a pervasive and intuitive tool for informal reasoning about "happens-before" relationships in a concurrent system. However, traditional axiomatic formalizations of Lamport diagrams can be painful to work with in a…
We discuss the statistics involved in the legal case of the nurse Lucia de B. in The Netherlands, 2003-2004. Lucia de B. witnessed an unusually high number of incidents during her shifts, and the question arose as to whether this could be…
Bayesian data analysis (BDA) is today used by a multitude of research disciplines. These disciplines use BDA as a way to embrace uncertainty by using multilevel models and making use of all available information at hand. In this chapter, we…
Donald (Don) Arthur Berry, born May 26, 1940 in Southbridge, Massachusetts, earned his A.B. degree in mathematics from Dartmouth College and his M.A. and Ph.D. in statistics from Yale University. He served first on the faculty at the…
This is a writeup of lectures on "statistics" that have evolved from the initial version for the 2009 Hadron Collider Physics Summer School at CERN to versions for other venues and, most recently, for the African School of Fundamental…
We consider the problem of learning causal directed acyclic graphs from an observational joint distribution. One can use these graphs to predict the outcome of interventional experiments, from which data are often not available. We show…
Ever since the studies of Louis-Adolphe Bertillon in the late 19th century it has been known that marital status and number of children markedly affect death and suicide rates. This led in 1898 Emile Durkheim to conjecture a connection…
Constraint-based causal discovery is brittle in finite-sample regimes because erroneous conditional-independence (CI) decisions can cascade into substantial structural errors. We propose Quantitative Argumentation for Causal Discovery…
Results of a convincing causal statistical inference related to socio-economic phenomena are treated as especially desired background for conducting various socio-economic programs or government interventions. Unfortunately, quite often…
In his constructive and well-informed commentary, Andrei Khrennikov acknowledges a privileged status of classical probability theory with respect to statistical analysis. He also sees advantages offered by the Contextuality-by-Default…
Interactions between internet users are mediated by their devices and the common support infrastructure in data centres. Keeping track of causality amongst actions that take place in this distributed system is key to provide a seamless…
A new class of stochastic processes called independent and periodically identically distributed (i.p.i.d.) processes is defined to capture periodically varying statistical behavior. Algorithms are proposed to detect changes in such i.p.i.d.…
Shoutir Kishore Chatterjee was born in Ranchi, a small hill station in India, on November 6, 1934. He received his B.Sc. in statistics from the Presidency College, Calcutta, in 1954, and M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees in statistics from the…
We address the problem of inferring the causal direction between a continuous variable $X$ and a discrete variable $Y$ from observational data. For the model $X \to Y$, we adopt the threshold model used in prior work. For the model $Y \to…
There are two main opposing schools of statistical reasoning, Frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Until recent days, the frequentist or classical approach has dominated the scientific research, but Bayesianism has reappeared with a strong…
Introduction. Increased efforts in neuroscience try to understand mental disorders as brain disorders. In the present study we investigate how common a neuroreductionist inclination is among highly educated people. In particular, we shed…
Albert Einstein accepted a 'special' visiting professorship at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands in February 1920. Although his appointment should have been a mere formality, it took until October of that year before Einstein…
Actual causation is concerned with the question "what caused what?" Consider a transition between two states within a system of interacting elements, such as an artificial neural network, or a biological brain circuit. Which combination of…
The Contextuality-by-Default (CbD) theory allows one to separate contextuality from context-dependent errors and violations of selective influences (aka "no-signaling" or "no-disturbance" principles). This makes the theory especially…