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We present an estimation procedure for nonlinear mixed-effects models in which the population trajectory is represented by penalized splines and adapted to individuals via subject-specific transformation parameters. By exploiting the mixed…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-13 Matteo D'Alessandro , Magne Thoresen , Øystein Sørensen

Applications of structural equation models (SEMs) are often restricted to linear associations between variables. Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in non-linear models may be complex and require numerical integration. Furthermore, ML…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-15 Klaus Kähler Holst , Esben Budtz-Jørgensen

We consider linear mixed models in which the observations are grouped. A L1-penalization on the fixed effects coefficients of the log-likelihood obtained by considering the random effects as missing values is proposed. A multicycle ECM…

Computation · Statistics 2013-01-29 Florian Rohart , Magali San-Cristobal , Béatrice Laurent

Motivated by genome-wide association studies, we consider a standard linear model with one additional random effect in situations where many predictors have been collected on the same subjects and each predictor is analyzed separately.…

Applications · Statistics 2013-04-24 Matti Pirinen , Peter Donnelly , Chris C. A. Spencer

Recent research has shown that large language models (LLMs) can be effectively used for real-world time series forecasting due to their strong natural language understanding capabilities. However, aligning time series into semantic spaces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Lingzheng Zhang , Lifeng Shen , Yimin Zheng , Shiyuan Piao , Ziyue Li , Fugee Tsung

In biomedical science, analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity plays an essential role in assisting personalized medicine. The main goals of analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity include estimating treatment effects in clinically…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Waverly Wei , Maya Petersen , Mark J van der Laan , Zeyu Zheng , Chong Wu , Jingshen Wang

We investigate joint modeling of longevity trends using the spatial statistical framework of Gaussian Process regression. Our analysis is motivated by the Human Mortality Database (HMD) that provides unified raw mortality tables for nearly…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-06 Nhan Huynh , Mike Ludkovski

In the missing data literature, the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) is celebrated for its ignorability property under missing at random (MAR) data. However, its sensitivity to misspecification of the (complete) data model, even under…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Jeffrey Näf

When examining the relationship between an exposure and an outcome, there is often a time lag between exposure and the observed effect on the outcome. A common statistical approach for estimating the relationship between the outcome and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-28 Seongwon Im , Ander Wilson , Daniel Mork

This paper extends the Lee-Carter model for single- and multi-populations to account for pandemic jump effects of vanishing kind, allowing for a more comprehensive and accurate representation of mortality rates during a pandemic,…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-30 Julius Goes , Karim Barigou , Anne Leucht

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) aims to predict future values of a time series given the past values. The current state-of-the-art (SOTA) on this problem is attained in some cases by linear-centric models, which primarily feature a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-03 Ronghao Ni , Zinan Lin , Shuaiqi Wang , Giulia Fanti

Objective: Post-traumatic epilepsy (PTE) is a debilitating neurological disorder that develops after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Early prediction of PTE remains challenging due to heterogeneous clinical data, limited positive cases, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Wenhui Cui , Nicholas Swingle , Anand A. Joshi , Dileep Nair , Richard M. Leahy

Interference--in which a unit's outcome is affected by the treatment of other units--poses significant challenges for the identification and estimation of causal effects. Most existing methods for estimating interference effects assume that…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Yuhua Zhang , Jukka-Pekka Onnela , Shuo Sun , Ruoyu Wang

We study empirical Bayes (EB) predictive density estimation in linear mixed models (LMMs) with large number of units, which induce a high dimensional random effects space. Focusing on Kullback Leibler (KL) risk minimization, we develop a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Abir Sarkar , Gourab Mukherjee , Keisuke Yano

Several approaches have been developed for forecasting mortality using the stochastic model. In particular, the Lee-Carter model has become widely used and there have been various extensions and modifications proposed to attain a broader…

Applications · Statistics 2011-08-04 Valeria D'Amato , Gabriella Piscopo , Maria Russolillo

Heart failure (HF) discharge planning depends on identifying patients at risk of deterioration or death, yet accurate prediction from routinely collected electronic health records (EHRs) remains challenging. We developed and validated…

In the Admixture Model, the probability of an individual having a certain number of alleles at a specific marker depends on the allele frequencies in $K$ ancestral populations and the fraction of the individual's genome originating from…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-29 Carola Sophia Heinzel

Lifelong model editing (LME) aims to sequentially rectify outdated or inaccurate knowledge in deployed LLMs while minimizing side effects on unrelated inputs. However, existing approaches typically apply parameter perturbations to a static…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-14 Yangfan Wang , Tianyang Sun , Chen Tang , Jie Liu , Wei Cai , Jingchi Jiang

As populations age, the rise of multimorbidity poses a significant healthcare challenge. However, our ability to quantitatively forecast the progression of multimorbidity remains limited. Leveraging a nationwide dataset comprising…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-07-29 Katharina Ledebur , Alexandra Kautzky-Willer , Stefan Thurner , Peter Klimek

We consider the statistical analysis of heterogeneous data for prediction in situations where the observations include functions, typically time series. We extend the modeling with Mixtures-of-Experts (ME), as a framework of choice in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-21 Faïcel Chamroukhi , Nhat Thien Pham , Van Hà Hoang , Geoffrey J. McLachlan