Related papers: Forecasting Mortality Rates: A Linear Mixed-Effect…
This paper presents an application of Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) for analyzing age-specific death rates (ASDRs), constituting a longitudinal dataset with repeated measurements over time. GEE models, known for their robustness in…
There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…
Personalized prediction is a machine learning approach that predicts a person's future observations based on their past labeled observations and is typically used for sequential tasks, e.g., to predict daily mood ratings. When making…
Several mixed-effects models for longitudinal data have been proposed to accommodate the non-linearity of late-life cognitive trajectories and assess the putative influence of covariates on it. No prior research provides a side-by-side…
Linear mixed models (LMMs) are used as an important tool in the data analysis of repeated measures and longitudinal studies. The most common form of LMMs utilize a normal distribution to model the random effects. Such assumptions can often…
This study introduces a novel generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) for mortality modelling, utilizing the mortality covariate $k_t$ as proposed by Dastranj-Kolar. Our findings indicate that the GAMM effectively addresses this…
We use the illness-death model (IDM) for chronic conditions to derive a new analytical relation between the transition rates between the states of the IDM. The transition rates are the incidence rate (i) and the mortality rates of people…
Linear mixed-effects model (LMM) is a cornerstone of longitudinal data analysis, but is limited to adeptly make heterogeneous analyses predictable under both group-specific fixed effects and subject-specific random effects. To address this…
The complexity of linear mixed-effects (LME) models means that traditional diagnostics are rendered less effective. This is due to a breakdown of asymptotic results, boundary issues, and visible patterns in residual plots that are…
Linear Mixed Effects (LME) models have been widely applied in clustered data analysis in many areas including marketing research, clinical trials, and biomedical studies. Inference can be conducted using maximum likelihood approach if…
Mixed Models for Repeated Measures (MMRMs) are ubiquitous when analyzing outcomes of clinical trials. However, the linearity of the fixed-effect structure in these models largely restrict their use to estimating treatment effects that are…
Age-specific mortality improvements are non-uniform, neither across ages nor across time. We propose a two-step procedure to estimate the rates of mortality improvement (RMI) in age-specific death rates (ASDR) at ages 85 and above for ten…
This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can…
Linear Mixed-Effects (LME) models are a fundamental tool for modeling clustered data, including cohort studies, longitudinal data analysis, and meta-analysis. The design and analysis of variable selection methods for LMEs is considerably…
A novel data-driven methodology is presented for the joint selection of prior parameters for both fixed and random effects in Linear Mixed Models (LMMs). This approach facilitates the estimation of complex random-effects structures, as well…
A well-established insight in mortality forecasting is that combining predictions from a set of models improves accuracy compared to relying on a single best model. This paper proposes a novel ensemble approach based on Shapley values, a…
The decline in interest rates and economic stabilization has heightened the importance of accurate mortality rate forecasting, particularly in insurance and pension markets. Multi-step-ahead predictions are crucial for public health,…
The primary analysis of clinical trials in diabetes therapeutic area often involves a mixed-model repeated measure (MMRM) approach to estimate the average treatment effect for longitudinal continuous outcome, and a generalized linear mixed…
Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic…
Background: Reliable prediction of clinical progression over time can improve the outcomes of depression. Little work has been done integrating various risk factors for depression, to determine the combinations of factors with the greatest…