Related papers: Intraday FX Volatility-Curve Forecasting with Func…

This paper introduces a novel process for both factor and idiosyncratic volatility matrices whose eigenvalues follow the vector auto-regressive (VAR) model. We call it the factor and idiosyncratic VAR (FIVAR) model. The FIVAR model accounts…

We study the prediction of Value at Risk (VaR) for cryptocurrencies. In contrast to classic assets, returns of cryptocurrencies are often highly volatile and characterized by large fluctuations around single events. Analyzing a…

In this paper we investigate the scaling behavior of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies namely US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. Average daily exchange rate…

This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…

We suggest two classes of multivariate GARCH--models which are both easy to estimate and perform well in forecasting the covariance matrix of more than one hundred stocks. We apply methods from random matrix theory (RMT) to determine the…

Time-varying volatility is an inherent feature of most economic time-series, which causes standard correlation estimators to be inconsistent. The quadrant correlation estimator is consistent but very inefficient. We propose a novel…

A Bayesian estimation of a GARCH model is performed for US Dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a proposal density given by the adaptive construction scheme. In the adaptive construction scheme the…

Working on different aspects of algorithmic trading we empirically discovered a new market invariant. It links together the volatility of the instrument with its traded volume, the average spread and the volume in the order book. The…

The study of long-horizon returns has received a great deal of attention in recent years (see, for example, Boudoukh, Richardson, and Whitelaw (2008), Neuberger (2012) and Lee (2013), Fama and French (2018)). While most of the discussions…

For the calibration of the parameters in static and dynamic SABR stochastic volatility models, we propose the application of the GPU technology to the Simulated Annealing global optimization algorithm and to the Monte Carlo simulation. This…

The Foreign Exchange market is a significant market for speculators, characterized by substantial transaction volumes and high volatility. Accurately predicting the directional movement of currency pairs is essential for formulating a sound…

Stock market volatility forecasting is a task relevant to assessing market risk. We investigate the interaction between news and prices for the one-day-ahead volatility prediction using state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. The…

There are various metrics for financial risk, such as value at risk (VaR), expected shortfall, expected/unexpected loss, etc. When estimating these metrics, it was very common to assume Gaussian distribution for the asset returns, which may…

The multifractal behavior for tick data of prices is investigated in Korean financial market. Using the rescaled range analysis(R/S analysis), we show the multifractal nature of returns for the won-dollar exchange rate and the KOSPI. We…

This paper introduces an innovative realized volatility (RV) forecasting framework that extends the conventional Heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model via integrating Graph Signal Processing (GSP). The study first evaluates various…

A plethora of static and dynamic models exist to forecast Value-at-Risk and other quantile-related metrics used in financial risk management. Industry practice tends to favour simpler, static models such as historical simulation or its…

This study was conducted to find an appropriate statistical model to forecast the volatilities of PSEi using the model Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Using the R software, the log returns of PSEi is…

In recent years, the popularity of artificial intelligence has surged due to its widespread application in various fields. The financial sector has harnessed its advantages for multiple purposes, including the development of automated…

We develop a new VAR model for structural analysis with mixed-frequency data. The MIDAS-SVAR model allows to identify structural dynamic links exploiting the information contained in variables sampled at different frequencies. It also…

We propose a novel method to quantify the clustering behavior in a complex time series and apply it to a high-frequency data of the financial markets. We find that regardless of used data sets, all data exhibits the volatility clustering…