English
Related papers

Related papers: Extrapolating Away from the Cutoff in Regression D…

200 papers

Identification in a regression discontinuity (RD) research design hinges on the discontinuity in the probability of treatment when a covariate (assignment variable) exceeds a known threshold. When the assignment variable is measured with…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-07 Zhuan Pei , Yi Shen

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

Introduction: Modelling of relative treatment effects is an important aspect to consider when extrapolating the long-term survival outcomes of treatments. Flexible parametric models offer the ability to accurately model the observed data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-02 Philip Cooney , Arthur White

Empirical studies using Regression Discontinuity (RD) designs often explore heterogeneous treatment effects based on pretreatment covariates, even though no formal statistical methods exist for such analyses. This has led to the widespread…

Many researchers have applied classical statistical decision theory to evaluate treatment choices and learn optimal policies. However, because this framework is based solely on realized outcomes under chosen decisions and ignores…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Benedikt Koch , Kosuke Imai

While randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for estimating causal treatment effects, their limited sample sizes and restrictive criteria make it difficult to extrapolate to a broader population. Observational data, while…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Stephanie Riley , Ricardo Silva , Matthew Sperrin

The regression discontinuity (RD) design offers identification of causal effects under weak assumptions, earning it a position as a standard method in modern political science research. But identification does not necessarily imply that…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-14 Drew Stommes , P. M. Aronow , Fredrik Sävje

This paper analyzes difference-in-differences designs with a continuous treatment. We show that treatment-on-the-treated-type parameters are identified under a parallel trends assumption analogous to the binary treatment case. However,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-05 Brantly Callaway , Andrew Goodman-Bacon , Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna

No unmeasured confounding is a common assumption when reasoning about counterfactual outcomes, but such an assumption may not be plausible in observational studies. Sensitivity analysis is often employed to assess the robustness of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-20 Abhinandan Dalal , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

We propose a structural approach to extrapolate average partial effects away from the cutoff in regression discontinuity designs (RDDs). Our focus is on applications that exploit closely contested school district referenda to estimate the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-05 Austin Feng , Francesco Ruggieri

We propose a new estimation method for heterogeneous causal effects which utilizes a regression discontinuity (RD) design for multiple datasets with different thresholds. The standard RD design is frequently used in applied researches, but…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-05-14 Takayuki Toda , Ayako Wakano , Takahiro Hoshino

Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are a popular approach to estimating a treatment effect of cutoff-based interventions. Two current estimation approaches dominate the literature. One fits separate regressions on either side of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-10 Daryl Swartzentruber , Eloise Kaizar

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) represent a gold standard when developing policy guidelines. However, RCTs are often narrow, and lack data on broader populations of interest. Causal effects in these populations are often estimated using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Zeshan Hussain , Michael Oberst , Ming-Chieh Shih , David Sontag

This paper investigates how certain relationship between observed and counterfactual distributions serves as an identifying condition for treatment effects when the treatment is endogenous, and shows that this condition holds in a range of…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-28 Sukjin Han , Haiqing Xu

In the conventional regression-discontinuity (RD) design, the probability that units receive a treatment changes discontinuously as a function of one covariate exceeding a threshold or cutoff point. This paper studies an extended RD design…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-13 Eugenio Felipe Merlano

We consider the problem of extrapolating treatment effects across heterogeneous populations (``sites"/``contexts"). We consider an idealized scenario in which the researcher observes cross-sectional data for a large number of units across…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-03 Konrad Menzel

Quasi-experimental evaluations are central for generating real-world causal evidence and complementing insights from randomized trials. The regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental design that can be used to estimate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Maximilian Schuessler , Erik Sverdrup , Robert Tibshirani , Stefan Wager

A fundamental question underlying the literature on partial identification is: what can we learn about parameters that are relevant for policy but not necessarily point-identified by the exogenous variation we observe? This paper provides…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-07 Philip Marx

This paper develops a nonparametric model that represents how sequences of outcomes and treatment choices influence one another in a dynamic manner. In this setting, we are interested in identifying the average outcome for individuals in…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-01-16 Sukjin Han

This paper explores the use of a fuzzy regression discontinuity design where multiple treatments are applied at the threshold. The identification results show that, under the very strong assumption that the change in the probability of…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-04-20 Hector Galindo-Silva , Nibene Habib Some , Guy Tchuente