Related papers: Spatial-Temporal Extreme Modeling for Point-to-Are…
Climate change poses increasingly complex challenges to our society. Extreme weather events such as floods, wild fires or droughts are becoming more frequent, spontaneous and difficult to foresee or counteract. In this work we specifically…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are the state of the art for projecting the effects of climate change. However, longstanding uncertainties in their ability to simulate regional and local precipitation extremes and related processes inhibit…
In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…
Most climate trend studies analyze long-term trends as a proxy for climate dynamics. However, when examining seasonal data, it is unrealistic to assume that long-term trends remain consistent across all seasons. Instead, each season likely…
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…
The last decades have seen an unprecedented increase in the availability of data sets that are inherently global and temporally evolving, from remotely sensed networks to climate model ensembles. This paper provides a view of statistical…
Recent extreme value theory literature has seen significant emphasis on the modelling of spatial extremes, with comparatively little consideration of spatio-temporal extensions. This neglects an important feature of extreme events: their…
With extreme weather events becoming more common, the risk posed by surface water flooding is ever increasing. In this work we propose a model, and associated Bayesian inference scheme, for generating probabilistic (high-resolution…
Storm surge, the onshore rush of sea water caused by the high winds and low pressure associated with a hurricane, can compound the effects of inland flooding caused by rainfall, leading to loss of property and loss of life for residents of…
Modeling a precipitation field is challenging due to its intermittent and highly scale-dependent nature. Motivated by the features of high-frequency precipitation data from a network of rain gauges, we propose a threshold space-time $t$…
Preventive control is a crucial strategy for power system operation against impending natural hazards, and its effectiveness fundamentally relies on the realism of scenario generation. While most existing studies employ sequential Monte…
Adaptation-relevant predictions of climate change are often derived by combining climate model simulations in a multi-model ensemble. Model evaluation methods used in performance-based ensemble weighting schemes have limitations in the…
There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…
We study the spatio-temporal features of extremal sub-daily precipitation data over the Piave river basin in northeast Italy using a rich database of observed hourly rainfall. Empirical evidence suggests that both the marginal and…
Extreme value statistics provides accurate estimates for the small occurrence probabilities of rare events. While theory and statistical tools for univariate extremes are well-developed, methods for high-dimensional and complex data sets…
Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest but had little economic impact. However, the widespread adoption of advanced…
Study Region: Goslar and G\"ottingen, Lower Saxony, Germany. Study Focus: In July 2017, the cities of Goslar and G\"ottingen experienced severe flood events characterized by short warning time of only 20 minutes, resulting in extensive…
Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…
Climate extremes such as floods, storms, and heatwaves have caused severe economic and human losses across Europe in recent decades. To support the European Union's climate resilience efforts, we propose a statistical framework for…
Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes. Precipitation projections with high spatial resolution are important for society to prepare for these changes, e.g. to model flooding impacts. Physics-based simulations for…