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Evaluating the predictive performance of a statistical model is commonly done using cross-validation. Among the various methods, leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) is frequently used. Originally designed for exchangeable observations,…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-04 Zhedong Liu , Janet Van Niekerk , Haavard Rue

Cross-validation (CV) is a widely-used method of predictive assessment based on repeated model fits to different subsets of the available data. CV is applicable in a wide range of statistical settings. However, in cases where data are not…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-23 Alex Cooper , Aki Vehtari , Catherine Forbes

Cross-validation (CV) is a common method to tune machine learning methods and can be used for model selection in regression as well. Because of the structured nature of small, traditional experimental designs, the literature has warned…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-18 Maria L. Weese , Byran J. Smucker , David J. Edwards

It is useful to estimate the expected predictive performance of models planned to be used for prediction. We focus on leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), which has become a popular method for estimating predictive performance of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Tuomas Sivula , Måns Magnusson , Asael Alonzo Matamoros , Aki Vehtari

We analyze the statistical properties of generalized cross-validation (GCV) and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) applied to early-stopped gradient descent (GD) in high-dimensional least squares regression. We prove that GCV is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-27 Pratik Patil , Yuchen Wu , Ryan J. Tibshirani

One of the common goals of time series analysis is to use the observed series to inform predictions for future observations. In the absence of any actual new data to predict, cross-validation can be used to estimate a model's future…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-02 Paul-Christian Bürkner , Jonah Gabry , Aki Vehtari

Cross-validation can be used to measure a model's predictive accuracy for the purpose of model comparison, averaging, or selection. Standard leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) requires that the observation model can be factorized into…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-21 Paul-Christian Bürkner , Jonah Gabry , Aki Vehtari

With machine learning being a popular topic in current computational materials science literature, creating representations for compounds has become common place. These representations are rarely compared, as evaluating their performance -…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Samantha Durdy , Michael Gaultois , Vladimir Gusev , Danushka Bollegala , Matthew J. Rosseinsky

Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is a popular method for estimating out-of-sample predictive accuracy. However, computing LOO-CV criteria can be computationally expensive due to the need to fit the model multiple times. In the…

Computation · Statistics 2023-09-28 Luca Silva , Giacomo Zanella

Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) can be particularly accurate among cross-validation (CV) variants for machine learning assessment tasks -- e.g., assessing methods' error or variability. But it is expensive to re-fit a model $N$ times…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-24 William T. Stephenson , Tamara Broderick

A natural method for approximating out-of-sample predictive evaluation is leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) --- we alternately hold out each case from a full data set and then train a Bayesian model using Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-28 Longhai Li , Shi Qiu , Bei Zhang , Cindy X. Feng

Recently, new methods for model assessment, based on subsampling and posterior approximations, have been proposed for scaling leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) to large datasets. Although these methods work well for estimating predictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-12 Måns Magnusson , Michael Riis Andersen , Johan Jonasson , Aki Vehtari

Common cross-validation (CV) methods like k-fold cross-validation or Monte-Carlo cross-validation estimate the predictive performance of a learner by repeatedly training it on a large portion of the given data and testing on the remaining…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-30 Felix Mohr , Jan N. van Rijn

Many modern data analyses benefit from explicitly modeling dependence structure in data -- such as measurements across time or space, ordered words in a sentence, or genes in a genome. A gold standard evaluation technique is structured…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-02 Soumya Ghosh , William T. Stephenson , Tin D. Nguyen , Sameer K. Deshpande , Tamara Broderick

Cross-validation is a common method for estimating the predictive performance of machine learning models. In a data-scarce regime, where one typically wishes to maximize the number of instances used for training the model, an approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 George I. Austin , Itsik Pe'er , Tal Korem

In machine learning one often assumes the data are independent when evaluating model performance. However, this rarely holds in practise. Geographic information data sets are an example where the data points have stronger dependencies among…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-01 Jonne Pohjankukka , Tapio Pahikkala , Paavo Nevalainen , Jukka Heikkonen

We describe a fast computation method for leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) for $k$-nearest neighbours ($k$-NN) regression. We show that, under a tie-breaking condition for nearest neighbours, the LOOCV estimate of the mean square…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-05 Motonobu Kanagawa

Model inference, such as model comparison, model checking, and model selection, is an important part of model development. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) is a general approach for assessing the generalizability of a model, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-12 Måns Magnusson , Michael Riis Andersen , Johan Jonasson , Aki Vehtari

Studying unified model averaging estimation for situations with complicated data structures, we propose a novel model averaging method based on cross-validation (MACV). MACV unifies a large class of new and existing model averaging…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Dalei Yu , Xinyu Zhang , Hua Liang

Structural estimation is an important methodology in empirical economics, and a large class of structural models are estimated through the generalized method of moments (GMM). Traditionally, selection of structural models has been performed…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-07-19 Junpei Komiyama , Hajime Shimao
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