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The instrumental variable (IV) design is a common approach to address hidden confounding bias. For validity, an IV must impact the outcome only through its association with the treatment. In addition, IV identification has required a…

In this paper, we study nonparametric estimation of instrumental variable (IV) regressions. Recently, many flexible machine learning methods have been developed for instrumental variable estimation. However, these methods have at least one…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-13 Andrew Bennett , Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Whitney Newey , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Masatoshi Uehara

Instrumental variable analysis is a widely used method to estimate causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. When the instruments, exposure and outcome are not measured in the same sample, Angrist and Krueger (1992)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-09-07 Qingyuan Zhao , Jingshu Wang , Jack Bowden , Dylan S. Small

Inference for causal effects can benefit from the availability of an instrumental variable (IV) which, by definition, is associated with the given exposure, but not with the outcome of interest other than through a causal exposure effect.…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-13 Stijn Vansteelandt , Jack Bowden , Manoochehr Babanezhad , Els Goetghebeur

The method of instrumental variables (IV) provides a framework to study causal effects in both randomized experiments with noncompliance and in observational studies where natural circumstances produce as-if random nudges to accept…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-07 Hyunseung Kang , Laura Peck , Luke Keele

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is commonly used to infer causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. Existing methods typically aim to estimate the mean causal effects, whereas a few other methods focus on quantile…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-13 Anastasiia Holovchak , Sorawit Saengkyongam , Nicolai Meinshausen , Xinwei Shen

Finding valid instruments is difficult. We propose Validity Set Instrumental Variable (VSIV) estimation, a method for estimating local average treatment effects (LATEs) in heterogeneous causal effect models when the instruments are…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-11 Zhenting Sun , Kaspar Wüthrich

The instrumental variables (IV) method is a method for making causal inferences about the effect of a treatment based on an observational study in which there are unmeasured confounding variables. The method requires a valid IV, a variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-19 Dylan Small , Zhiqiang Tan , Scott Lorch , Alan Brookhart

We discuss the fundamental issue of identification in linear instrumental variable (IV) models with unknown IV validity. With the assumption of the "sparsest rule", which is equivalent to the plurality rule but becomes operational in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-06 Yiqi Lin , Frank Windmeijer , Xinyuan Song , Qingliang Fan

In a causal graphical model, an instrument for a variable X and its effect Y is a random variable that is a cause of X and independent of all the causes of Y except X. (Pearl (1995), Spirtes et al (2000)). Instrumental variables can be used…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-14 Tianjiao Chu , Richard Scheines , Peter L. Spirtes

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) are considered a promising recipe to deliver better policy interventions. One key ingredient in optimal ITR estimation problems is to estimate the average treatment effect conditional on a subject's…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-16 Hongming Pu , Bo Zhang

Instrumental variable methods are widely used to address unmeasured confounding, yet much of the existing literature has focused on the binary instrument setting. Extensions to continuous instruments often impose strong parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Zhenghao Zeng , Alexander W. Levis , JungHo Lee , Edward H. Kennedy , Luke Keele

This paper proposes three novel test procedures that yield valid inference in an environment with many weak instrumental variables (MWIV). It is observed that the t statistic of the jackknife instrumental variable estimator (JIVE) has an…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-28 Luther Yap

Instrumental variable (IV) is a powerful approach to inferring the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome of interest from observational data even when there exist latent confounders between the treatment and the outcome. However,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Lee , Jixue Liu

In this paper, we derive the asymptotic Cram\'er-Rao lower bound for the continuous-time output error model structure and provide an analysis of the statistical efficiency of the Simplified Refined Instrumental Variable method for…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-20 Siqi Pan , James S. Welsh , Rodrigo A. González , Cristian R. Rojas

In observational studies, instrumental variables estimation is greatly utilized to identify causal effects. One of the key conditions for the instrumental variables estimator to be consistent is the exclusion restriction, which indicates…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Gyuhyeong Goh , Jisang Yu

This paper presents the asymptotic behavior of a linear instrumental variables (IV) estimator that uses a ridge regression penalty. The regularization tuning parameter is selected empirically by splitting the observed data into training and…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-08-27 Nandana Sengupta , Fallaw Sowell

The finite sample properties of estimators are usually understood or approximated using asymptotic theories. Two main asymptotic constructions have been used to characterize the presence of many instruments. The first assumes that the…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-06-30 Guy Tchuente

Jackknife instrumental variable estimation (JIVE) is a classic method to leverage many weak instrumental variables (IVs) to estimate linear structural models, overcoming the bias of standard methods like two-stage least squares. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-08 Aurélien Bibaut , Nathan Kallus , Apoorva Lal

Learning a causal effect from observational data is not straightforward, as this is not possible without further assumptions. If hidden common causes between treatment $X$ and outcome $Y$ cannot be blocked by other measurements, one…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-10 Ricardo Silva , Shohei Shimizu