Related papers: A generating function perspective on the transmiss…
The reconstruction of a central tendency `species tree' from a large number of conflicting gene trees is a central problem in systematic biology. Moreover, it becomes particularly problematic when taxon coverage is patchy, so that not all…
We propose methods for density estimation and data synthesis using a novel form of unsupervised random forests. Inspired by generative adversarial networks, we implement a recursive procedure in which trees gradually learn structural…
We study the SIR ("susceptible, infected, removed/recovered") model on directed graphs with heterogeneous transmission probabilities within the message-passing approximation. We characterize the percolation transition, predict cluster size…
The spread of infectious disease in a human community or the proliferation of fake news on social media can be modeled as a randomly growing tree-shaped graph. The history of the random growth process is often unobserved but contains…
We present convincing empirical evidence for an effective and general strategy for building accurate small models. Such models are attractive for interpretability and also find use in resource-constrained environments. The strategy is to…
Mean field theory models of percolation on networks provide analytic estimates of network robustness under node or edge removal. We introduce a new mean field theory model based on generating functions that includes information about the…
A biologically motivated individual-based framework for evolution in network-structured populations is developed that can accommodate eco-evolutionary dynamics. This framework is used to construct a network birth and death model. The…
In this work, we derive a system of Boltzmann-type equations to describe the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus at the microscopic scale, that is by modeling the human-to-human mechanisms of transmission. To this end, we consider two populations,…
The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in various contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the dynamics of survival analysis,…
A general theory of stochastic decision forests is developed to bridge two concepts of information flow: decision trees and refined partitions on the one side, filtrations from probability theory on the other. Instead of the traditional…
While circular data occur in a wide range of scientific fields, the methodology for distributional modeling and probabilistic forecasting of circular response variables is rather limited. Most of the existing methods are built on the…
This article examines how diseases on random networks spread in time. The disease is described by a probability distribution function for the number of infected and recovered individuals, and the probability distribution is described by a…
The Transformed-Transformer family of distributions are the resulting family of distributions as transformed from a random variable $T$ through another transformer random variable $X$ using a weight function $\omega$ of the cumulative…
Understanding cascading processes on complex network topologies is paramount for modelling how diseases, information, fake news and other media spread. In this paper, we extend the multi-type branching process method developed in Keating et…
The interaction among spreading processes on a complex network is a nontrivial phenomenon of great importance. It has recently been realized that cooperative effects among infective diseases can give rise to qualitative changes in the…
Modelling the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease is a complex task. Not only it is difficult to accurately model the inherent non-stationarity and heterogeneity of transmission, but it is nearly impossible to describe,…
Understanding the evolution of binary traits, which affects the birth and survival of species and also the rate of molecular evolution, remains challenging. A typical example is the evolution of mating systems in plant species. In this…
The ongoing explosion of genome sequence data is transforming how we reconstruct and understand the histories of biological systems. Across biological scales, from individual cells to populations and species, trees-based models provide a…
In a recent article a generalization of the binomial distribution associated with a sequence of positive numbers was examined. The analysis of the nonnegativeness of the formal expressions was a key-point to allow to give them a statistical…
The contact process is a simple model for the spread of an infection in a structured population. We investigate the case when the underlying structure evolves dynamically as a degree-dependent dynamical percolation model. Starting with a…