Related papers: An age-structured SVEAIR epidemiological model
We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…
Routine public health surveillance of notifiable infectious diseases gives rise to weekly counts of reported cases -- possibly stratified by region and/or age group. We investigate how an age-structured social contact matrix can be…
Estimation of epidemiological and population parameters from molecular sequence data has become central to the understanding of infectious disease dynamics. Various models have been proposed to infer details of the dynamics that describe…
COVID-19 has shown a relatively low mortality rate in young healthy individuals, with the majority of this group being asymptomatic or having mild symptoms, while the severity of the disease among individuals with underlying health…
Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…
The existence of positive equilibrium solutions to age-dependent population equations with nonlinear diffusion is studied in an abstract setting. By introducing a bifurcation parameter measuring the intensity of the fertility it is shown…
The Gompertz model since 1825 has significantly contributed to interpretation of ageing in biological and social sciences. However, in modern research findings, it is clear that the Gompertz model is not successful to describe the whole…
A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread worldwide, inducing an epidemic still active in Argentina. In this chapter, we present a case study using an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) diffusion model of…
In this paper we consider an SIRS epidemic model under a general assumption of density-dependent mortality. We prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and propose a Lyapunov function that allows to demonstrate the global…
In this work, we use a new approach to study the spread of an infectious disease. Indeed, we study a SIR epidemic model with variable infectivity, where the individuals are distributed over a compact subset $D$ of $\R^d$. We define…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
The spatialization of socioeconomic data can be used and integrated with other sources of information to reveal valuable insights. Such data can be utilized to infer different variations, such as the dynamics of city dwellers and their…
We propose two SIR models which incorporate sociological behavior of groups of individuals. It is these differences in behaviors which impose different infection rates on the individual susceptible populations, rather than biological…
In Fall 2020, several European countries reported rapid increases in COVID-19 cases along with growing estimates of the effective reproduction rates. Such an acceleration in epidemic spread is usually attributed to time-dependent effects,…
Recently, emerging epidemics like COVID-19 and its variants require predictive mathematical models to implement suitable responses in order to limit their negative and profound impact on society. The SIR (Susceptible-InfectedRemoved) system…
Socio-demographic factors influence social contact patterns and play a fundamental role in shaping the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. However, compartment-based models of infectious disease dynamics commonly consider the…
Stochastic epidemic models which incorporate interactions between space and human mobility are a key tool to inform prioritisation of outbreak control to appropriate locations. However, methods for fitting such models to national-level…
Traditionally, population models distinguish individuals on the basis of their current state. Given a distribution, a discrete time model then specifies (precisely in deterministic models, probabilistically in stochastic models) the…
Age-structured models with nonlocal diffusion arise naturally in describing the population dynamics of biological species and the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases in which individuals disperse nonlocally and interact each other…
We use a simple SIR-like epidemic model which integrates known age-contact patterns for the United States to model the effect of age-targeted mitigation strategies for a COVID-19-like epidemic. We find that, among strategies which end with…