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Mutual information is widely used in artificial intelligence, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of discrete random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the empirical value, one must…
Mutual information is widely used in artificial intelligence, in a descriptive way, to measure the stochastic dependence of discrete random variables. In order to address questions such as the reliability of the empirical value, one must…
We introduce a constraint-programming framework for generating synthetic populations that reproduce target statistics with high precision while enforcing full individual consistency. Unlike data-driven approaches that infer distributions…
Accurate biodiversity monitoring is essential for effective environmental policy, yet current practices often rely on arbitrarily defined ecosystems, communities, and ad-hoc indicator species, limiting cost-efficiency and reproducibility.…
In surveys, the interest lies in estimating finite population parameters such as population totals and means. In most surveys, some auxiliary information is available at the estimation stage. This information may be incorporated in the…
Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses…
The topic of deep learning has seen a surge of interest in recent years both within and outside of the field of Statistics. Deep models leverage both nonlinearity and interaction effects to provide superior predictions in many cases when…
Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process, but in some cases it may not be possible to write down a likelihood for these models…
Prediction polling is an increasingly popular form of crowdsourcing in which multiple participants estimate the probability or magnitude of some future event. These estimates are then aggregated into a single forecast. Historically,…
In ecological studies niche overlap is often used to quantify species interaction and dynamics. This paper develops a robust, nonparametric statistical framework for quantifying and analyzing multivariate niche overlap. Parametric methods…
Phylodynamics seeks to estimate effective population size fluctuations from molecular sequences of individuals sampled from a population of interest. One way to accomplish this task formulates an observed sequence data likelihood exploiting…
Deep Ensembles, as a type of Bayesian Neural Networks, can be used to estimate uncertainty on the prediction of multiple neural networks by collecting votes from each network and computing the difference in those predictions. In this paper,…
Scientific hypotheses typically concern specific aspects of complex, imperfectly understood or entirely unknown mechanisms, such as the effect of gene expression levels on phenotypes or how microbial communities influence environmental…
Conventional survival analysis approaches estimate risk scores or individualized time-to-event distributions conditioned on covariates. In practice, there is often great population-level phenotypic heterogeneity, resulting from (unknown)…
In this work we aim to obtain computationally-efficient uncertainty estimates with deep networks. For this, we propose a modified knowledge distillation procedure that achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty estimates both for in and…
Big data presents potential but unresolved value as a source for analysis and inference. However,selection bias, present in many of these datasets, needs to be accounted for so that appropriate inferences can be made on the target…
The statistical problem of using an initial sample to estimate the number of species in a larger sample has found important applications in fields far removed from ecology. Here we address the general problem of estimating the number of…
Multivariate count data are defined as the number of items of different categories issued from sampling within a population, which individuals are grouped into categories. The analysis of multivariate count data is a recurrent and crucial…
Central banks rely on density forecasts from professional surveys to assess inflation risks and communicate uncertainty. A central challenge in using these surveys is irregular participation: forecasters enter and exit, skip rounds, and…
This project proposes the development of a comprehensive real-time biodiversity monitoring system that harnesses sound data through a network of acoustic sensors and advanced artificial intelligence algorithms. The system analyzes sound…