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In recent years, the shortcomings of Bayesian posteriors as inferential devices have received increased attention. A popular strategy for fixing them has been to instead target a Gibbs measure based on losses that connect a parameter of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-24 David T. Frazier , Jeremias Knoblauch , Jack Jewson , Christopher Drovandi

Post-data statistical inference concerns making probability statements about model parameters conditional on observed data. When a priori knowledge about parameters is available, post-data inference can be conveniently made from Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-05 Yang Liu , Jan Hannig , Alexander C Murph

We study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to linear inverse problems under discrete observations. We use the discrete Fourier transform to convert our model into a truncated Gaussian sequence model, that is closely related to the classical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-31 Shota Gugushvili , Aad van der Vaart , Dong Yan

Implementing Bayesian inference is often computationally challenging in applications involving complex models, and sometimes calculating the likelihood itself is difficult. Synthetic likelihood is one approach for carrying out inference…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-15 David T. Frazier , David J. Nott , Christopher Drovandi , Robert Kohn

We develop a Bayesian approach called Bayesian projected calibration to address the problem of calibrating an imperfect computer model using observational data from a complex physical system. The calibration parameter and the physical…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-08 Fangzheng Xie , Yanxun Xu

We introduce a general framework that extends Bayesian inference by allowing the researcher to explicitly encode confidence in each source of uncertainty within the model. This mechanism provides a new handle for model design and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Rafael Mouallem Rosa , Julyan Arbel , Hien Duy Nguyen

The Bayesian conjugate gradient method offers probabilistic solutions to linear systems but suffers from poor calibration, limiting its utility in uncertainty quantification tasks. Recent approaches leveraging postiterations to construct…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-13 Niall Vyas , Disha Hegde , Jon Cockayne

In model development, model calibration and validation play complementary roles toward learning reliable models. In this article, we expand the Bayesian Validation Metric framework to a general calibration and validation framework by…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-04 Tony Tohme , Kevin Vanslette , Kamal Youcef-Toumi

Approximate Bayesian inference methods provide a powerful suite of tools for finding approximations to intractable posterior distributions. However, machine learning applications typically involve selecting actions, which -- in a Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-11 Michael J. Morais , Jonathan W. Pillow

Gaussian graphical models have been used to study intrinsic dependence among several variables, but the Gaussianity assumption may be restrictive in many applications. A nonparanormal graphical model is a semiparametric generalization for…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-20 Jami J. Mulgrave , Subhashis Ghosal

We present a new approach to the electromagnetic inverse problem that explicitly addresses the ambiguity associated with its ill-posed character. Rather than calculating a single ``best'' solution according to some criterion, our approach…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 David M. Schmidt , John S. George , C. C. Wood

Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-01 Xiaoyue Xi , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami

Estimation of parameters that obey specific constraints is crucial in statistics and machine learning; for example, when parameters are required to satisfy boundedness, monotonicity, or linear inequalities. Traditional approaches impose…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Lachlan Astfalck , Deborshee Sen , Sayan Patra , Edward Cripps , David Dunson

Comparing competing mathematical models of complex natural processes is a shared goal among many branches of science. The Bayesian probabilistic framework offers a principled way to perform model comparison and extract useful metrics for…

We propose a new empirical Bayes approach for inference in the $p \gg n$ normal linear model. The novelty is the use of data in the prior in two ways, for centering and regularization. Under suitable sparsity assumptions, we establish a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-06 Ryan Martin , Raymond Mess , Stephen G. Walker

We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification for an unknown low-rank matrix $\mathbf{X}$, given a partial and noisy observation of its entries. This quantification of uncertainty is essential for many real-world problems, including…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-28 Henry Shaowu Yuchi , Simon Mak , Yao Xie

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-28 Sharmila Karumuri , Ilias Bilionis

We introduce implicit Bayesian neural networks, a simple and scalable approach for uncertainty representation in deep learning. Standard Bayesian approach to deep learning requires the impractical inference of the posterior distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Trung Trinh , Samuel Kaski , Markus Heinonen

Calibration of computer models is a key step in making inferences, predictions, and decisions for complex science and engineering systems. We formulate and analyze a nonparametric Bayesian methodology for computer model calibration. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Haiyi Shi , Lei Yang , Jiarui Chi , Troy Butler , Haonan Wang , Derek Bingham , Don Estep

We present BayesQ, an uncertainty-guided post-training quantization framework that is the first to optimize quantization under the posterior expected loss. BayesQ fits a lightweight Gaussian posterior over weights (diagonal Laplace by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-13 Ismail Lamaakal , Chaymae Yahyati , Yassine Maleh , Khalid El Makkaoui , Ibrahim Ouahbi