Related papers: Advanced Techniques in Mortality Trend Estimation:…

This paper examines several computer algorithms designed to assess mortality and longevity risk.

Climate change poses increasing challenges for mortality modeling and underscores the need to integrate climate-related variables into mortality forecasting. This study introduces a two-step approach that incorporates climate information…

Traffic accidents pose a severe global public health issue, leading to 1.19 million fatalities annually, with the greatest impact on individuals aged 5 to 29 years old. This paper addresses the critical need for advanced predictive methods…

Death has long been overlooked in evolutionary algorithms. Recent research has shown that death (when applied properly) can benefit the overall fitness of a population and can outperform sub-sections of a population that are "immortal" when…

Data assimilation is used to optimally fit a classical epidemiology model to the Johns Hopkins data of the Covid-19 pandemic. The optimisation is based on the confirmed cases and confirmed deaths. This is the only data available with…

This paper extends the Lee-Carter model for single- and multi-populations to account for pandemic jump effects of vanishing kind, allowing for a more comprehensive and accurate representation of mortality rates during a pandemic,…

The COVID-19 pandemic so far has caused huge negative impacts on different areas all over the world, and the United States (US) is one of the most affected countries. In this paper, we use methods from the functional data analysis to look…

In this work, we propose a data augmentation strategy aimed at improving the training phase of neural networks and, consequently, the accuracy of their predictions. Our approach relies on generating synthetic data through a suitable…

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the…

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable impact on day-to-day life. Tackling the disease by providing the necessary resources to the affected is of paramount importance. However, estimation of the required resources is not a trivial…

Analytical descriptions of patterns concerning spread and fatality during an epidemic, covering natural as well as restriction periods, are important for reducing damage. We employ a scaling model to investigate this aspect in the real data…

When modeling sub-national mortality rates, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to potentially improve forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modeling; (2) how…

Chronic respiratory diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, are a serious health crisis, affecting a large number of people globally and inflicting major costs on the economy. Current methods for assessing the…

This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…

COVID-19 pandemic has created an extreme pressure on the global healthcare services. Fast, reliable and early clinical assessment of the severity of the disease can help in allocating and prioritizing resources to reduce mortality. In order…

Short-term forecasts of infectious disease spread are a critical component in risk evaluation and public health decision making. While different models for short-term forecasting have been developed, open questions about their relative…

Background: Recent work showed that the temporal growth of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) follows a sub-exponential power-law scaling whenever effective control interventions are in place. Taking this into consideration, we…

The COVID-19 pandemic has, worldwide and up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restrictive measures adopted by political…

In this paper, the motility model for the developed country, which United State possesses the largest economy in the world and thus serves as an ideal representation, is investigated. Early surveillance of the causes of death is critical…

By fitting a compartment ODE model for Covid-19 propagation to cumulative case and death data for US states and European countries, we find that the case mortality rate seems to have decreased by at least 80% in most of the US and at least…