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Performing optimal Bayesian design for discriminating between competing models is computationally intensive as it involves estimating posterior model probabilities for thousands of simulated datasets. This issue is compounded further when…
We consider a problem of clustering a sequence of multinomial observations by way of a model selection criterion. We propose a form of a penalty term for the model selection procedure. Our approach subsumes both the conventional AIC and BIC…
In collaborative forecast projects, the combining of multiple probabilistic forecasts into an ensemble is standard practice, with linear pooling being a common combination method. The weighting scheme of a linear pool should be tailored to…
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In…
Adding domain knowledge to a learning system is known to improve results. In multi-parameter Bayesian frameworks, such knowledge is incorporated as a prior. On the other hand, various model parameters can have different learning rates in…
Using observation data to estimate unknown parameters in computational models is broadly important. This task is often challenging because solutions are non-unique due to the complexity of the model and limited observation data. However,…
Bayesian methods are increasingly applied in these days in the theory and practice of statistics. Any Bayesian inference depends on a likelihood and a prior. Ideally one would like to elicit a prior from related sources of information or…
The Bayesian posterior minimizes the "inferential risk" which itself bounds the "predictive risk". This bound is tight when the likelihood and prior are well-specified. However since misspecification induces a gap, the Bayesian posterior…
In the popular approach of "Bayesian variable selection" (BVS), one uses prior and posterior distributions to select a subset of candidate variables to enter the model. A completely new direction will be considered here to study BVS with a…
In a bivariate meta-analysis the number of diagnostic studies involved is often very low so that frequentist methods may result in problems. Bayesian inference is attractive as informative priors that add small amount of information can…
Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…
While the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework offers an elegant solution to the problem of decision making under uncertainty, one question is how to appropriately select the prior distribution. One idea is to employ a worst-case prior.…
Bayesian deep learning approaches assume model parameters to be latent random variables and infer posterior distributions to quantify uncertainty, increase safety and trust, and prevent overconfident and unpredictable behavior. However,…
The choice of prior is central to solving ill-posed imaging inverse problems, making it essential to select one consistent with the measurements $y$ to avoid severe bias. In Bayesian inverse problems, this could be achieved by evaluating…
Class imbalance is a pervasive problem in predictive toxicology, where the number of non-toxic compounds often exceeds the number of toxic ones. Models trained on such data often perform well on the majority class but poorly on the minority…
In machine learning, it is common to optimize the parameters of a probabilistic model, modulated by an ad hoc regularization term that penalizes some values of the parameters. Regularization terms appear naturally in Variational Inference,…
Simulation plays a central role in scientific discovery. In many applications, the bottleneck is no longer running a simulator; it is choosing among large families of plausible simulators, each corresponding to different forward…
Bayesian inference for inverse problems hinges critically on the choice of priors. In the absence of specific prior information, population-level distributions can serve as effective priors for parameters of interest. With the advent of…
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently gained popularity due to their ability to quantify model uncertainty. However, specifying a prior for BNNs that captures relevant domain knowledge is often extremely challenging. In this work,…
In certain applications involving the solution of a Bayesian inverse problem, it may not be possible or desirable to evaluate the full posterior, e.g. due to the high computational cost of doing so. This problem motivates the use of…