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We present a framework for the efficient computation of optimal Bayesian decisions under intractable likelihoods, by learning a surrogate model for the expected utility (or its distribution) as a function of the action and data spaces. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-13 Justin Alsing , Thomas D. P. Edwards , Benjamin Wandelt

Bayesian networks, and especially their structures, are powerful tools for representing conditional independencies and dependencies between random variables. In applications where related variables form a priori known groups, chosen to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-02 Pekka Parviainen , Samuel Kaski

Active automata learning (AAL) is a method to infer state machines by interacting with black-box systems. Adaptive AAL aims to reduce the sample complexity of AAL by incorporating domain specific knowledge in the form of (similar) reference…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-07-01 Loes Kruger , Sebastian Junges , Jurriaan Rot

Estimating personalized treatment effects from high-dimensional observational data is essential in situations where experimental designs are infeasible, unethical, or expensive. Existing approaches rely on fitting deep models on outcomes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-02 Andrew Jesson , Panagiotis Tigas , Joost van Amersfoort , Andreas Kirsch , Uri Shalit , Yarin Gal

Bayesian learning has emerged as a compelling and vital research direction in the field of structural dynamics, offering a probabilistic lens to understand and refine the analysis of complex dynamical systems. This review meticulously…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-06-03 Wang-Ji Yan , Lin-Feng Mei , Yuan-Wei Yin , Jiang Mo , Costas Papadimitriou , Ka-Veng Yuen , Michael Beer

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-29 Alexander Terenin

Dynamical system state estimation and parameter calibration problems are ubiquitous across science and engineering. Bayesian approaches to the problem are the gold standard as they allow for the quantification of uncertainties and enable…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-11-12 Kairui Hao , Ilias Bilionis

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

Across a growing number of fields, human decision making is supported by predictions from AI models. However, we still lack a deep understanding of the effects of adoption of these technologies. In this paper, we introduce a general…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Otto Nyberg , Fausto Carcassi , Giovanni Cinà

Scenarios requiring humans to choose from multiple seemingly optimal actions are commonplace, however standard imitation learning often fails to capture this behavior. Instead, an over-reliance on replicating expert actions induces…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-11-08 Hanbit Oh , Hikaru Sasaki , Brendan Michael , Takamitsu Matsubara

I describe a framework for adaptive scientific exploration based on iterating an Observation--Inference--Design cycle that allows adjustment of hypotheses and observing protocols in response to the results of observation on-the-fly, as data…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-10 Thomas J. Loredo

The process of calibrating computer models of natural phenomena is essential for applications in the physical sciences, where plenty of domain knowledge can be embedded into simulations and then calibrated against real observations. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-20 Rafael Oliveira , Dino Sejdinovic , David Howard , Edwin V. Bonilla

We introduce a new framework for studying meta-learning methods using PAC-Bayesian theory. Its main advantage over previous work is that it allows for more flexibility in how the transfer of knowledge between tasks is realized. For previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Hossein Zakerinia , Amin Behjati , Christoph H. Lampert

Even though active learning forms an important pillar of machine learning, deep learning tools are not prevalent within it. Deep learning poses several difficulties when used in an active learning setting. First, active learning (AL)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-03-09 Yarin Gal , Riashat Islam , Zoubin Ghahramani

Affordances are fundamental descriptors of relationships between actions, objects and effects. They provide the means whereby a robot can predict effects, recognize actions, select objects and plan its behavior according to desired goals.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Pedro Osório , Alexandre Bernardino , Ruben Martinez-Cantin , José Santos-Victor

Bayesian Active Learning (BAL) is an efficient framework for learning the parameters of a model, in which input stimuli are selected to maximize the mutual information between the observations and the unknown parameters. However, the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-12-01 Camille Gontier , Simone Carlo Surace , Igor Delvendahl , Martin Müller , Jean-Pascal Pfister

Obtaining heteroscedastic predictive uncertainties from a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) is vital to many applications. Often, heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainties are learned as outputs of the BNN in addition to the predictive means,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-01 David J. Schodt , Ryan Brown , Michael Merritt , Samuel Park , Delsin Menolascino , Mark A. Peot

Count outcomes in longitudinal studies are frequent in clinical and engineering studies. In frequentist and Bayesian statistical analysis, methods such as Mixed linear models allow the variability or correlation within individuals to be…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-15 Alejandra Estefanía Patiño Hoyos , Johnatan Cardona Jiménez

The ability to learn and execute optimal control policies safely is critical to realization of complex autonomy, especially where task restarts are not available and/or the systems are safety-critical. Safety requirements are often…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-06 S M Nahid Mahmud , Moad Abudia , Scott A Nivison , Zachary I. Bell , Rushikesh Kamalapurkar

As one of the classic models that describe the belief dynamics over social networks, a non-Bayesian social learning model assumes that members in the network possess accurate signal knowledge through the process of Bayesian inference. In…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-05-21 Sannyuya Liu , Zhonghua Yan , Xiufeng Cheng , Liang Zhao