Related papers: Evaluating the Surrogate Index as a Decision-Makin…

When evaluating the effectiveness of a treatment, policy, or intervention, the desired measure of effectiveness may be expensive to collect, not routinely available, or may take a long time to occur. In these cases, it is sometimes possible…

Evaluating treatment effects is critical in clinical trials but sometimes involves lengthy, invasive, or costly follow-up procedures. In these cases, surrogate markers, which provide intermediate measures of the long-term treatment effect,…

Objectives: Surrogate endpoints, used to substitute for and predict final clinical outcomes, are increasingly being used to support submissions to health technology assessment agencies. The increase in use of surrogate endpoints has been…

Inferring causal effects on long-term outcomes using short-term surrogates is crucial to rapid innovation. However, even when treatments are randomized and surrogates fully mediate their effect on outcomes, it's possible that we get the…

Estimating long-term causal effects based on short-term surrogates is a significant but challenging problem in many real-world applications, e.g., marketing and medicine. Despite its success in certain domains, most existing methods…

There are many scenarios where short- and long-term causal effects of an intervention are different. For example, low-quality ads may increase short-term ad clicks but decrease the long-term revenue via reduced clicks. This work, therefore,…

In modern clinical trials, there is immense pressure to use surrogate markers in place of an expensive or long-term primary outcome to make more timely decisions about treatment effectiveness. However, using a surrogate marker to test for a…

In meta-analytic modeling, the functional relationship between a primary and surrogate endpoint is estimated using summary data from a set of completed clinical trials. Parameters in the meta-analytic model are used to assess the quality of…

Motivated by increasing pressure for decision makers to shorten the time required to evaluate the efficacy of a treatment such that treatments deemed safe and effective can be made publicly available, there has been substantial recent…

Decision makers often want to target interventions so as to maximize an outcome that is observed only in the long-term. This typically requires delaying decisions until the outcome is observed or relying on simple short-term proxies for the…

The method of surrogate data provides a framework for testing observed data against a hierarchy of alternative hypotheses. The aim of applying this method is to exclude the possibility that the data are consistent with simple linear…

Surrogate markers are often employed in clinical trials to replace primary outcomes that may be difficult, expensive, or time-consuming to measure directly. These markers can accelerate the evaluation of new treatments, provided they…

In streaming platforms churn is extremely costly, yet A/B tests are typically evaluated using outcomes observed within a limited experimental horizon. Even when both short- and predicted long-term engagement metrics are considered, they may…

Surrogate endpoints are used in place of long-term outcomes in randomized experiments when observing the real outcome for a large enough cohort is prohibitively expensive or impractical. A short-term surrogate is good if the result of an…

Online experimentation platforms collect user feedback at low cost and large scale. Some systems even support real-time or near real-time data processing, and can update metrics and statistics continuously. Many commonly used metrics, such…

Surrogate markers are most commonly studied within the context of randomized clinical trials. However, the need for alternative outcomes extends beyond these settings and may be more pronounced in real-world public health and social science…

The use of valid surrogate endpoints is an important stake in clinical research to help reduce both the duration and cost of a clinical trial and speed up the evaluation of interesting treatments. Several methods have been proposed in the…

A common practice in clinical trials is to evaluate a treatment effect on an intermediate endpoint when the true outcome of interest would be difficult or costly to measure. We consider how to validate intermediate endpoints in a…

The surrogate data method is widely applied as a data dependent technique to test observed time series against a barrage of hypotheses. However, often the hypotheses one is able to address are not those of greatest interest, particularly…

A surrogate marker is a biomarker or other physical measurement used to replace a primary outcome in clinical trials to evaluate a treatment effect when the primary outcome of interest is costly, invasive, or takes a long time to observe.…