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Predicting the next visited location of an individual is a key problem in human mobility analysis, as it is required for the personalization and optimization of sustainable transport options. Here, we propose a transformer decoder-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-31 Ye Hong , Henry Martin , Martin Raubal

Causal inference is a science with multi-disciplinary evolution and applications. On the one hand, it measures effects of treatments in observational data based on experimental designs and rigorous statistical inference to draw causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Jingying Zeng , Run Wang

Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Amanda Gentzel , Dan Garant , David Jensen

In biomedical research, repeated measurements within each subject are often processed to remove artifacts and unwanted sources of variation. The resulting data are used to construct derived outcomes that act as proxies for scientific…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-03 Zihang Wang , Razieh Nabi , Benjamin B. Risk

Causal inference has traditionally focused on interventions at the unit level. In many applications, however, the central question concerns the causal effects of connections between units, such as transportation links, social relationships,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Shuli Chen , Jie Hu , Zhichao Jiang

Sequential experimental design to discover interventions that achieve a desired outcome is a key problem in various domains including science, engineering and public policy. When the space of possible interventions is large, making an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-17 Jiaqi Zhang , Louis Cammarata , Chandler Squires , Themistoklis P. Sapsis , Caroline Uhler

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-10 Liuyi Yao , Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li , Yaliang Li , Jing Gao , Aidong Zhang

While benefiting people's daily life in so many ways, smartphones and their location-based services are generating massive mobile device location data that has great potential to help us understand travel demand patterns and make…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-10 Chenfeng Xiong , Aref Darzi , Yixuan Pan , Sepehr Ghader , Lei Zhang

Large-scale human mobility exhibits spatial and temporal patterns that can assist policymakers in decision making. Although traditional prediction models attempt to capture these patterns, they often interfered by non-periodic public…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-17 Xiaojie Yang , Hangli Ge , Jiawei Wang , Zipei Fan , Renhe Jiang , Ryosuke Shibasaki , Noboru Koshizuka

Transport policy assessment often involves causal questions, yet the causal inference capabilities of traditional travel behavioural models are at best limited. We present the deep CAusal infeRence mOdel for traveL behavIour aNAlysis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Kimia Kamal , Bilal Farooq

In this paper, we focus on estimating the causal effect of an intervention over time on a dynamical system. To that end, we formally define causal interventions and their effects over time on discrete-time stochastic processes (DSPs). Then,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Martina Cinquini , Isacco Beretta , Salvatore Ruggieri , Isabel Valera

We introduce a novel framework for causal explanations of stochastic, sequential decision-making systems built on the well-studied structural causal model paradigm for causal reasoning. This single framework can identify multiple,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-01-12 Samer B. Nashed , Saaduddin Mahmud , Claudia V. Goldman , Shlomo Zilberstein

In many applications of causal inference, the treatment received by one unit may influence the outcome of another, a phenomenon referred to as interference. Although there are several frameworks for conducting causal inference in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-27 Matvey Ortyashov , AmirEmad Ghassami

Understanding and modeling human mobility is central to challenges in transport planning, sustainable urban design, and public health. Despite decades of effort, simulating individual mobility remains challenging because of its complex,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-02-10 Ye Hong , Yatao Zhang , Konrad Schindler , Martin Raubal

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

We propose a new nonparametric modeling framework for causal inference when outcomes depend on how agents are linked in a social or economic network. Such network interference describes a large literature on treatment spillovers, social…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-25 Eric Auerbach , Hongchang Guo , Max Tabord-Meehan

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Christopher Stith , Medha Barath , Vahid Balazadeh , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan

Predicting the future location of users in wireless net- works has numerous applications, and can help service providers to improve the quality of service perceived by their clients. The location predictors proposed so far estimate the next…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-01-25 Jaeseong Jeong , Mathieu Leconte , Alexandre Proutiere

How do groups of individuals achieve consensus in movement decisions? Do individuals follow their friends, the one predetermined leader, or whomever just happens to be nearby? To address these questions computationally, we formalize…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-20 Chainarong Amornbunchornvej , Tanya Berger-Wolf

We review and conceptualize recent advances in causal inference under network interference, drawing on a complex and diverse body of work that ranges from causal inference, statistical network analysis, economics, the health sciences, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Subhankar Bhadra , Michael Schweinberger