Related papers: Using Causal Threads to Explain Changes in a Dynam…

Causal models capture cause-effect relations both qualitatively - via the graphical causal structure - and quantitatively - via the model parameters. They offer a powerful framework for analyzing and constructing processes. Here, we…

I present a scheme of drawing causal diagrams based on physically motivated mathematical models expressed in terms of temporal differential equations. They provide a means of better understanding the processes and causal relationships…

We propose a new method of discovering causal structures, based on the detection of local, spontaneous changes in the underlying data-generating model. We analyze the classes of structures that are equivalent relative to a stream of…

Causal discovery algorithms aim at untangling complex causal relationships from data. Here, we study causal discovery and inference methods based on staged tree models, which can represent complex and asymmetric causal relationships between…

Causal world models are systems that can answer counterfactual questions about an environment of interest, i.e. predict how it would have evolved if an arbitrary subset of events had been realized differently. It requires understanding the…

Causal reasoning is a crucial part of science and human intelligence. In order to discover causal relationships from data, we need structure discovery methods. We provide a review of background theory and a survey of methods for structure…

Causal diagrams are logic and graphical tools that depict assumptions about presumed causal relations. Such diagrams have proven effective in tackling a variety of problems in social sciences and epidemiology research yet remain foreign to…

Parametric causal modelling techniques rarely provide functionality for counterfactual estimation, often at the expense of modelling complexity. Since causal estimations depend on the family of functions used to model the data, simplistic…

We introduce and test the System Dynamics Bot, a computer program leveraging a large language model to automate the creation of causal loop diagrams from textual data. To evaluate its performance, we ensembled two distinct databases. The…

Complex systems can be modelled at various levels of detail. Ideally, causal models of the same system should be consistent with one another in the sense that they agree in their predictions of the effects of interventions. We formalise…

Causality is vital for understanding true cause-and-effect relationships between variables within predictive models, rather than relying on mere correlations, making it highly relevant in the field of Explainable AI. In an automated…

In data science, there is a long history of using synthetic data for method development, feature selection and feature engineering. Our current interest in synthetic data comes from recent work in explainability. Today's datasets are…

Deep generative models have shown tremendous capability in data density estimation and data generation from finite samples. While these models have shown impressive performance by learning correlations among features in the data, some…

To represent the causal relationships between variables, a directed acyclic graph (DAG) is widely utilized in many areas, such as social sciences, epidemics, and genetics. Many causal structure learning approaches are developed to learn the…

Causal models, also known as Structural Equation Models (SEM), are a well-known formalism for representing and reasoning about causal dependencies between events. In this paper, we show that Temporal SEMs (TSEMs), which extend SEMs to…

Temporal graphs represent the dynamic relationships among entities and occur in many real life application like social networks, e commerce, communication, road networks, biological systems, and many more. They necessitate research beyond…

Structural-equations models (SEMs) are perhaps the most commonly used framework for modeling causality. However, as we show, naively extending this framework to infinitely many variables, which is necessary, for example, to model dynamical…

Causal structure discovery (CSD) models are making inroads into several domains, including Earth system sciences. Their widespread adaptation is however hampered by the fact that the resulting models often do not take into account the…

Soft set theory provides a direct framework for parameterized decision modeling by assigning to each attribute (parameter) a subset of a given universe, thereby representing uncertainty in a structured way [1, 2]. Over the past decades, the…

Understanding the causal relationships that underlie a system is a fundamental prerequisite to accurate decision-making. In this work, we explore how expert knowledge can be used to improve the data-driven identification of causal graphs,…