Related papers: High-Throughput Asset Pricing
The ranking problem is to order a collection of units by some unobserved parameter, based on observations from the associated distribution. This problem arises naturally in a number of contexts, such as business, where we may want to rank…
When aggregating information from conflicting sources, one's goal is to find the truth. Most real-value \emph{truth discovery} (TD) algorithms try to achieve this goal by estimating the competence of each source and then aggregating the…
Bayesian methods lie at the heart of modern data science and provide a powerful scaffolding for estimation in data-constrained settings and principled quantification and propagation of uncertainty. Yet in many real-world use cases where…
The widespread adoption of randomized controlled trials (A/B Tests) for decision-making has introduced a pervasive "Winner's Curse": experiments selected for launch often exhibit upwardly biased effect estimates and invalid confidence…
We presented Bayesian portfolio selection strategy, via the $k$ factor asset pricing model. If the market is information efficient, the proposed strategy will mimic the market; otherwise, the strategy will outperform the market. The…
Matrix factorization methods - including Factor analysis (FA), and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) - are widely used for inferring and summarizing structure in multivariate data. Many matrix factorization methods exist, corresponding to…
Modeling natural phenomena with artificial neural networks (ANNs) often provides highly accurate predictions. However, ANNs often suffer from over-parameterization, complicating interpretation and raising uncertainty issues. Bayesian neural…
Mining 29,000 accounting ratios for t-statistics $> 2.0$ leads to cross-sectional return predictability similar to the peer review process. For both, $\approx50\%$ of predictability remains after the original sample periods. This finding…
Taiwan's auditors have suffered from processing excessive audit data, including drawing audit evidence. This study advances sampling techniques by integrating machine learning with sampling. This machine learning integration helps avoid…
The Sharpe ratio is a way to compare the excess returns (over the risk free asset) of portfolios for each unit of volatility that is generated by a portfolio. In this paper we introduce a robust Sharpe ratio portfolio under the assumption…
We develop a method to generate prediction sets with a guaranteed coverage rate that is robust to corruptions in the training data, such as missing or noisy variables. Our approach builds on conformal prediction, a powerful framework to…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a simulation-based likelihood-free method applicable to both model selection and parameter estimation. ABC parameter estimation requires the ability to forward simulate datasets from a candidate…
We introduce a scalable Bayesian preference learning method for identifying convincing arguments in the absence of gold-standard rat- ings or rankings. In contrast to previous work, we avoid the need for separate methods to perform quality…
Non-linear hierarchical models are commonly used in many disciplines. However, inference in the presence of non-nested effects and on large datasets is challenging and computationally burdensome. This paper provides two contributions to…
Bayesian aggregation lets election forecasters combine diverse sources of information, such as state polls and economic and political indicators: as in our collaboration with The Economist magazine. However, the demands of real-time…
The use of non-translation invariant risk measures within the equal risk pricing (ERP) methodology for the valuation of financial derivatives is investigated. The ability to move beyond the class of convex risk measures considered in…
The steady-state Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) makes it possible to incorporate prior information about the long-run mean of the process. This has been shown in many studies to substantially improve forecasting performance, and the…
Macroeconomic indexes are of high importance for banks: many risk-control decisions utilize these indexes. A typical workflow of these indexes evaluation is costly and protracted, with a lag between the actual date and available index being…
A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of…
How can we precisely estimate a large language model's (LLM) accuracy on questions belonging to a specific topic within a larger question-answering dataset? The standard direct estimator, which averages the model's accuracy on the questions…