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This article discusses a partially adapted particle filter for estimating the likelihood of a nonlinear structural econometric state space models whose state transition density cannot be expressed in closed form. The filter generates the…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-05 Jamie Hall , Michael K. Pitt , Robert Kohn

We look at a stochastic time-varying optimization problem and we formulate online algorithms to find and track its optimizers in expectation. The algorithms are derived from the intuition that standard prediction and correction steps can be…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-11 Andrea Simonetto , Paolo Massioni

This paper presents an efficient Bayesian framework for solving nonlinear, high-dimensional model calibration problems. It is based on a Variational Bayesian formulation that aims at approximating the exact posterior by means of solving an…

Applications · Statistics 2015-11-02 Isabell M. Franck , P. S. Koutsourelakis

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

A novel approximate Bayesian filter based on backward stochastic differential equations is introduced. It uses a nonlinear Feynman--Kac representation of the filtering problem and the approximation of an unnormalized filtering density using…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Kasper Bågmark , Adam Andersson , Stig Larsson

In this paper, we propose a meshfree approximation method for the implicit filter developed in [2], which is a novel numerical algorithm for nonlinear filtering problems. The implicit filter approximates conditional distributions in the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-08-05 Feng Bao , Yanzhao Cao , Clayton Webster , Guannan Zhang

We introduce neural information field filter, a Bayesian state and parameter estimation method for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems given large measurement datasets. Solving such a problem using traditional methods, such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-17 Kairui Hao , Ilias Bilionis

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-10 Peter I. Frazier

The inverse problem of determining parameters in a model by comparing some output of the model with observations is addressed. This is a description for what hat to be done to use the Gauss-Markov-Kalman filter for the Bayesian estimation…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-11-29 Hermann G. Matthies , Alexander Litvinenko , Bojana V. Rosic , Elmar Zander

Bayesian optimization is a methodology for global optimization of unknown and expensive objectives. It combines a surrogate Bayesian regression model with an acquisition function to decide where to evaluate the objective. Typical regression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-04 Afonso Eduardo , Michael U. Gutmann

Bayesian Optimization is a sample-efficient black-box optimization procedure that is typically applied to problems with a small number of independent objectives. However, in practice we often wish to optimize objectives defined over many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Wesley J. Maddox , Maximilian Balandat , Andrew Gordon Wilson , Eytan Bakshy

Matrix factorization from a small number of observed entries has recently garnered much attention as the key ingredient of successful recommendation systems. One unresolved problem in this area is how to adapt current methods to handle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-08-07 John Z. Sun , Kush R. Varshney , Karthik Subbian

State estimation of dynamical systems is crucial for providing new decision-making and system automation information in different applications. However, the assumptions on the standard computational models for sensor measurements can be…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-25 Aamir Hussain Chughtai , Arslan Majal , Muhammad Tahir , Momin Uppal

The paper provides simple formulas of Bayesian filtering for the exact recursive computation of state conditional probability density functions given quantized innovations signal measurements of a linear stochastic system. This is a topic…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-04-11 Chun-Chia Huang , Robert R. Bitmead

State estimation or filtering serves as a fundamental task to enable intelligent decision-making in applications such as autonomous vehicles, robotics, healthcare monitoring, smart grids, intelligent transportation, and predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Aamir Hussain Chughtai

In this paper is proposed a novel incremental iterative Gauss-Newton-Markov-Kalman filter method for state estimation of dynamic models given noisy measurements. The mathematical formulation of the proposed filter is based on the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-17 Bojana Rosic

In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-14 Daniela Calvetti , Matthew M. Dunlop , Erkki Somersalo , Andrew M. Stuart

The filtering distribution captures the statistics of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. Classical particle filters provably approximate this distribution in quite general settings; however they behave…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Edoardo Calvello , Pierre Monmarché , Andrew M. Stuart , Urbain Vaes

Many state estimation algorithms must be tuned given the state space process and observation models, the process and observation noise parameters must be chosen. Conventional tuning approaches rely on heuristic hand-tuning or gradient-based…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-12-19 Zhaozhong Chen , Nisar Ahmed , Simon Julier , Christoffer Heckman

Gaussian mixtures are a common density representation in nonlinear, non-Gaussian Bayesian state estimation. Selecting an appropriate number of Gaussian components, however, is difficult as one has to trade of computational complexity…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2012-04-02 Marco F. Huber