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In many decision-making problems, the primary outcome is expensive, time-consuming, or difficult to observe, so individualized treatment rules (ITRs) may be instead learned from surrogate endpoints. However, a surrogate that is highly…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Zeyu Xu , Xiaojie Mao , Hao Mei , Yue Liu

We consider the problem of selecting the optimal subgroup to treat when data on covariates is available from a randomized trial or observational study. We distinguish between four different settings including (i) treatment selection when…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-28 Tyler J. VanderWeele , Alex R. Luedtke , Mark J. van der Laan , Ronald C. Kessler

We study the design of multi-armed parallel group clinical trials to estimate personalized treatment rules that identify the best treatment for a given patient with given covariates. Assuming that the outcomes in each treatment arm are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-13 David Azriel , Yosef Rinott , Martin Posch

We study the problem of a decision maker who must provide the best possible treatment recommendation based on an experiment. The desirability of the outcome distribution resulting from the policy recommendation is measured through a…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-04-06 Anders Bredahl Kock , David Preinerstorfer , Bezirgen Veliyev

Identifying who should be treated is a central question in economics. There are two competing approaches to targeting - paternalistic and autonomous. In the paternalistic approach, policymakers optimally target the policy given observable…

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) are considered a promising recipe to deliver better policy interventions. One key ingredient in optimal ITR estimation problems is to estimate the average treatment effect conditional on a subject's…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-16 Hongming Pu , Bo Zhang

LLMs are increasingly used to make or support high-stakes decisions under uncertainty, where alignment depends not only on factual accuracy but on how models weigh tradeoffs between different outcomes. We present an empirical pipeline for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Khurram Yamin , Jingjing Tang , Eric Horvitz , Bryan Wilder

Personalized decision-making, aiming to derive optimal treatment regimes based on individual characteristics, has recently attracted increasing attention in many fields, such as medicine, social services, and economics. Current literature…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-28 Jianing Chu , Wenbin Lu , Shu Yang

The ability to predict individualized treatment effects (ITEs) based on a given patient's profile is essential for personalized medicine. We propose a hypothesis testing approach to choosing between two potential treatments for a given…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Tianxi Cai , Tony Cai , Zijian Guo

Synthesizing information from multiple data sources is crucial for constructing accurate individualized treatment rules (ITRs). However, privacy concerns often present significant barriers to the integrative analysis of such multi-source…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-11 Nan Qiao , Wangcheng Li , Jingxiao Zhang , Canyi Chen

Clinical trials usually target average treatment effects, but treatment decisions are made for individuals. This tension motivates a common criticism of evidence-based medicine: a treatment that is beneficial on average may be inappropriate…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-29 Zach Shahn , Mats Stensrud

The individualized treatment rule (ITR), which recommends an optimal treatment based on individual characteristics, has drawn considerable interest from many areas such as precision medicine, personalized education, and personalized…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-28 Qi Xu , Haoda Fu , Annie Qu

Learning individualized treatment rules (ITRs) is an important topic in precision medicine. Current literature mainly focuses on deriving ITRs from a single source population. We consider the observational data setting when the source…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-04 Rui Chen , Jared D. Huling , Guanhua Chen , Menggang Yu

Individualized treatment rules (ITRs) for treatment recommendation is an important topic for precision medicine as not all beneficial treatments work well for all individuals. Interpretability is a desirable property of ITRs, as it helps…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-06 Jacob M. Maronge , Jared D. Huling , Guanhua Chen

Medical treatments tailored to a patient's baseline characteristics hold the potential of improving patient outcomes while reducing negative side effects. Learning individualized treatment rules (ITRs) often requires aggregation of multiple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-15 Jay Jojo Cheng , Jared D. Huling , Guanhua Chen

We apply classical statistical decision theory to a large class of treatment choice problems with partial identification. We show that, in a general class of problems with Gaussian likelihood, all decision rules are admissible; it is…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-24 José Luis Montiel Olea , Chen Qiu , Jörg Stoye

Many policies involve dynamics in their treatment assignments, where individuals receive sequential interventions over multiple stages. We study estimation of an optimal dynamic treatment regime that guides the optimal treatment assignment…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-04 Shosei Sakaguchi

Recent development in data-driven decision science has seen great advances in individualized decision making. Given data with individual covariates, treatment assignments and outcomes, researchers can search for the optimal individualized…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-16 Weibin Mo , Yufeng Liu

A core component of precision medicine research involves optimizing individualized treatment rules (ITRs) based on patient characteristics. Many studies used to estimate ITRs are longitudinal in nature, collecting outcomes over time. Yet,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-29 Lanqiu Yao , Thaddeus Tarpey

The complexity of human cancer often results in significant heterogeneity in response to treatment. Precision medicine offers potential to improve patient outcomes by leveraging this heterogeneity. Individualized treatment rules (ITRs)…