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Stochastic state-transition models of infectious disease transmission can be used to deduce relevant drivers of transmission when fitted to data using statistically principled methods. Fitting this individual-level data requires inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-12 James Neill , Lloyd A. C. Chapman , Chris Jewell

Estimation of hypothetical estimands in clinical trials typically does not make use of data that may be collected after the intercurrent event (ICE). Some recent papers have shown that such data can be used for estimation of hypothetical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-22 Jonathan W. Bartlett , Rhian M. Daniel

The identification of similar patient pathways is a crucial task in healthcare analytics. A flexible tool to address this issue are parametric competing risks models, where transition intensities may be specified by a variety of parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-10 Kathrin Möllenhoff , Nadine Binder , Holger Dette

We propose an efficient transfer Bayesian optimization method, which finds the maximum of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box function by using data on related optimization tasks. Our method uses auxiliary information that represents the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-18 Tomoharu Iwata , Takuma Otsuka

Covariate-specific treatment effects (CSTEs) represent heterogeneous treatment effects across subpopulations defined by certain selected covariates. In this article, we consider marginal structural models where CSTEs are linearly…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-25 Peng Wu , Zhiqiang Tan , Wenjie Hu , Xiao-Hua Zhou

In this paper we present a technique for using the bootstrap to estimate the operating characteristics and their variability for certain types of ensemble methods. Bootstrapping a model can require a huge amount of work if the training data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-26 Anthony Gamst , Jay-Calvin Reyes , Alden Walker

We consider statistical inference for a finite-dimensional parameter in a regular semiparametric model under a distributed setting with blockwise missingness, where entire blocks of variables are unavailable at certain sites and sharing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Jingyue Huang , Huiyuan Wang , Yuqing Lei , Yong Chen

A popular approach to nonparametric option pricing is the Minimum Cross Entropy (MCE) method based on minimization of the relative Kullback-Leibler entropy of the price density distribution and a given reference density, with observable…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Igor Halperin

An information based method for solving stochastic control problems with partial observation has been proposed. First, the information-theoretic lower bounds of the cost function has been analysed. It has been shown, under rather weak…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-21 Piotr Bania

We consider the problem of feature selection in multi-label classification, considering the costs assigned to groups of features. In this task, the goal is to select a subset of features that will be useful for predicting the label vector,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-06 Tomasz Klonecki , Paweł Teisseyre , Jaesung Lee

This paper focuses on estimating the coefficients and average partial effects of observed regressors in nonlinear panel data models with interactive fixed effects, using the common correlated effects (CCE) framework. The proposed two-step…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-27 Liang Chen , Minyuan Zhang

This study evaluates the effectiveness of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in mitigating medical overtreatment, a significant issue characterized by unnecessary interventions that inflate healthcare costs and pose risks to patients. We…

General Economics · Economics 2024-06-05 Ziyi Wang , Lijia Wei , Lian Xue

Mediation analysis is widely used for exploring treatment mechanisms; however, it faces challenges when nonignorable missing confounders are present. Efficient inference of mediation effects and the efficiency loss due to nonignorable…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Jiawei Shan , Wei Li , Chunrong Ai

Replicating causal estimates across different cohorts is crucial for increasing the integrity of epidemiological studies. However, strong assumptions regarding unmeasured confounding and effect modification often hinder this goal. By…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-23 Roy S. Zawadzki , Daniel L. Gillen

The pseudo-observation method is regularly applied to time-to-event data. However, to date such analyses have relied on not formally verified statements or ad-hoc methods regarding covariance estimation. This paper strives to close this gap…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-23 Simon Mack , Morten Overgaard , Dennis Dobler

Many clinical risk scores are deployed as additive rules with nonnegative integer points assigned to relevant binary predictive features. These integer weights not only make the score easier to use in practice but also promote sparsity in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-20 Ying Cui , Albert M Li , Vivek Charu , Yeon-Mi Hwang , Tina Hernandez-Boussard , Lu Tian

For handling intercurrent events in clinical trials, one of the strategies outlined in the ICH E9(R1) addendum targets the hypothetical scenario of non-occurrence of the intercurrent event. While this strategy is often implemented by…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-18 Florian Lasch , Lorenzo Guizzaro , Wen Wei Loh

When we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a stochastic system, the simulation often contains input distributions estimated from real-world data; therefore, there is both simulation and input uncertainty in the performance…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Wei Xie , Barry L. Nelson , Russell R. Barton

Reinforcement learning can learn amortised design policies for designing sequences of experiments. However, current amortised methods rely on estimators of expected information gain (EIG) that require an exponential number of samples on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Tom Blau , Iadine Chades , Amir Dezfouli , Daniel Steinberg , Edwin V. Bonilla

Inference methods for computing confidence intervals in parametric settings usually rely on consistent estimators of the parameter of interest. However, it may be computationally and/or analytically burdensome to obtain such estimators in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-20 Samuel Orso , Mucyo Karemera , Maria-Pia Victoria-Feser , Stéphane Guerrier