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The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) evaluates the separation between patients and nonpatients or discrimination. For risk prediction models these risk distributions can be derived from the…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-23 Ralph H. Stern

Risk stratification is most directly and informatively summarized as a risk distribution curve. From this curve the ROC curve, predictiveness curve, and other curves depicting risk stratification can be derived, demonstrating that they…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2009-12-17 Ralph Stern

The area under the ROC curve (AUC) is the standard measure of a biomarker's discriminatory accuracy; however, naive AUC estimates can be misleading when validation cohorts differ from the intended target population. Such covariate shifts…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Jiajun Liu , Guangcai Mao , Xiaofei Wang

Prior to clinical applications, it is critical that risk prediction models are evaluated in independent studies that did not contribute to model development. While prospective cohort studies provide a natural setting for model validation,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-13 Parichoy Pal Choudhury , Anil K. Chaturvedi , Nilanjan Chatterjee

Optimal performance is critical for decision-making tasks from medicine to autonomous driving, however common performance measures may be too general or too specific. For binary classifiers, diagnostic tests or prognosis at a timepoint,…

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the ROC curve are widely used to compare the performance of diagnostic and prognostic assays. The ROC curve has the advantage that it is independent of…

The proper use of model evaluation metrics is important for model evaluation and model selection in binary classification tasks. This study investigates how consistent different metrics are at evaluating models across data of different…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-17 Jing Li

Background: Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves are widely used to evaluate the performance of Software Defect Prediction (SDP) models that estimate module fault-proneness, i.e., the probability that a module is faulty. A ROC…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Luigi Lavazza , Gabriele Rotoloni , Sandro Morasca

In high-stakes risk prediction, quantifying uncertainty through interval-valued predictions is essential for reliable decision-making. However, standard evaluation tools like the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Yuqi Li , Matthew M. Engelhard

Throughout science and technology, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and associated area under the curve (AUC) measures constitute powerful tools for assessing the predictive abilities of features, markers and tests in binary…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-25 Tilmann Gneiting , Eva-Maria Walz

The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) is a widely employed metric in long-tailed classification scenarios. Nevertheless, most existing methods primarily assume that training and testing examples are drawn i.i.d. from the same distribution,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-07 Siran Dai , Qianqian Xu , Zhiyong Yang , Xiaochun Cao , Qingming Huang

ROC analyses are considered under a variety of assumptions concerning the distributions of a measurement $X$ in two populations. These include the binormal model as well as nonparametric models where little is assumed about the form of…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-02 Luai Al Labadi , Michael Evans , Qiaoyu Liang

Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) is a popular evaluation metric for binary classifiers. In this paper, we discuss techniques to segment the AUC-ROC along human-interpretable dimensions. AUC-ROC is not an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-25 Arya Tafvizi , Besim Avci , Mukund Sundararajan

The ROC curve is the gold standard for measuring the performance of a test/scoring statistic regarding its capacity to discriminate between two statistical populations in a wide variety of applications, ranging from anomaly detection in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-25 Stéphan Clémençon , Myrto Limnios , Nicolas Vayatis

The Area Under the the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) Curve, referred to as AUC, is a well-known performance measure in the supervised learning domain. Due to its compelling features, it has been employed in a number of studies to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Pablo Andretta Jaskowiak , Ivan Gesteira Costa , Ricardo José Gabrielli Barreto Campello

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a very useful tool for analyzing the diagnostic/classification power of instruments/classification schemes as long as a binary-scale gold standard is available. When the gold standard is…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-05-10 Zhanfeng Wang , Yuan-chin Ivan Chang

The accuracy of a diagnostic test is typically characterised using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Summarising indexes such as the area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used to compare different tests as well as to measure…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-30 Fang Yao , Radu V. Craiu , Benjamin Reiser

In analysis of binary outcomes, the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve is heavily used to show the performance of a model or algorithm. The ROC curve is informative about the performance over a series of thresholds and can be…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-10 John Muschelli

While there has been a growing research interest in developing out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods, there has been comparably little discussion around how these methods should be evaluated. Given their relevance for safe(r) AI, it…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-06-27 Galadrielle Humblot-Renaux , Sergio Escalera , Thomas B. Moeslund

Risk prediction that capitalizes on emerging genetic findings holds great promise for improving public health and clinical care. However, recent risk prediction research has shown that predictive tests formed on existing common genetic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Changshuai Wei , Qing Lu
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