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We study mean-field variational Bayesian inference using the TAP approach, for Z2-synchronization as a prototypical example of a high-dimensional Bayesian model. We show that for any signal strength $\lambda > 1$ (the weak-recovery…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-18 Michael Celentano , Zhou Fan , Song Mei

We conduct non-asymptotic analysis on the mean-field variational inference for approximating posterior distributions in complex Bayesian models that may involve latent variables. We show that the mean-field approximation to the posterior…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-06 Wei Han , Yun Yang

Approximate inference is central to Bayesian learning, with variational inference (VI) providing a scalable framework for posterior approximation. While mean-field VI often fails in high dimensions, the more refined Bethe approximation,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Zhiyuan Yu , Jingbo Liu

We derive a variational representation for the log-normalizing constant of the posterior distribution in Bayesian linear regression with a uniform spherical prior and an i.i.d. Gaussian design. We work under the "proportional" asymptotic…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-16 Jiaze Qiu , Subhabrata Sen

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-09 Elliot Maceda , Emily C. Hector , Amanda Lenzi , Brian J. Reich

In many problems in modern statistics and machine learning, it is often of interest to establish that a first order method on a non-convex risk function eventually enters a region of parameter space in which the risk is locally convex. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-23 Michael Celentano

We construct optimal low-rank approximations for the Gaussian posterior distribution in linear Gaussian inverse problems with possibly infinite-dimensional separable Hilbert parameter spaces and finite-dimensional data spaces. We first…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-09 Giuseppe Carere , Han Cheng Lie

Recent work has attempted to directly approximate the `function-space' or predictive posterior distribution of Bayesian models, without approximating the posterior distribution over the parameters. This is appealing in e.g. Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-19 David R. Burt , Sebastian W. Ober , Adrià Garriga-Alonso , Mark van der Wilk

Recently, Approximate Message Passing (AMP) has been integrated with stochastic localization (diffusion model) by providing a computationally efficient estimator of the posterior mean. Existing (rigorous) analysis typically proves the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-18 Han Cui , Zhiyuan Yu , Jingbo Liu

Approximating marginals of a graphical model is one of the fundamental problems in the theory of networks. In a recent paper a method was shown to construct a variational free energy such that the linear response estimates, and maximum…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2014-05-01 Jack Raymond , Federico Ricci-Tersenghi

In this paper, we consider the problem of parametric empirical Bayes estimation of an i.i.d. prior in high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression, with random design. We obtain the asymptotic distribution of the variational Empirical Bayes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Seunghyun Lee , Nabarun Deb

The present paper proposes an adaptive biasing potential for the computation of free energy landscapes. It is motivated by statistical learning arguments and unifies the tasks of biasing the molecular dynamics to escape free energy wells…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2018-03-05 I. Bilionis , P. S. Koutsourelakis

We study predictive density estimation under Kullback-Leibler loss in $\ell_0$-sparse Gaussian sequence models. We propose proper Bayes predictive density estimates and establish asymptotic minimaxity in sparse models. A surprise is the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-01 Gourab Mukherjee , Iain M. Johnstone

In the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, data are often informative, relative to the prior, only on a low-dimensional subspace of the parameter space. Significant computational savings can be achieved by using this subspace to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-07-07 Alessio Spantini , Antti Solonen , Tiangang Cui , James Martin , Luis Tenorio , Youssef Marzouk

Modern applications of Bayesian inference involve models that are sufficiently complex that the corresponding posterior distributions are intractable and must be approximated. The most common approximation is based on Markov chain Monte…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-15 Yue Yang , Ryan Martin , Howard Bondell

In this paper, we introduce a new form of amortized variational inference by using the forward KL divergence in a joint-contrastive variational loss. The resulting forward amortized variational inference is a likelihood-free method as its…

We extend several recent results providing symmetry-based guarantees for variational inference (VI) with location-scale families. VI approximates a target density $p$ by the best match $q^*$ in a family $Q$ of tractable distributions that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-11 Charles C. Margossian , Lawrence K. Saul

We propose a robust and scalable variational Bayes (VB) framework designed to effectively handle contamination and outliers in dataset. Our approach partitions the data into $m$ disjoint subsets and formulates a joint optimization problem…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Jiawei Yan , Ju Liu , Weidong Liu , Jiyuan Tu

Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), where a random vector $\mathbf{x}$ is observed through a noisy, possibly nonlinear, function of a linear transform $\mathbf{z}=\mathbf{Ax}$ arise in a range of applications in nonlinear filtering and…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-05-03 Sundeep Rangan , Alyson K. Fletcher , Philip Schniter , Ulugbek Kamilov

Current approaches in approximate inference for Bayesian neural networks minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence to approximate the true posterior over the weights. However, this approximation is without knowledge of the final application,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-11 Adam D. Cobb , Stephen J. Roberts , Yarin Gal
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