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The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-09-11 Prantika Bhowmik , Dibyendu Nandy

The solar magnetic activity cycle is responsible for periodic episodes of severe space weather, which can perturb satellite orbits, interfere with communications systems, and bring down power grids. Much progress has recently been made in…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 T. S. Metcalfe , T. J. Henry , M. Knolker , D. R. Soderblom

The observed persistence of specific periodicities detected in time series associated with solar surface magnetic activity over several solar cycles has led to numerous papers supporting the existence of preferred longitudes. Recent…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 C. J. Henney , B. R. Durney

The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of time scales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2017-07-26 Robert Cameron , Manfred Schüssler

Context. Solar activity, dominated by the 11-year cyclic evolution, has been observed directly since 1610. Before that, indirect cosmogenic proxy data are used to reconstruct it over millennia. Recently, the precision of radiocarbon…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-22 Ilya Usoskin , Sami K. Solanki , Natalie A. Krivova , Theodosis Chatzistergos

The appearance of dark sunspots over the solar photosphere is not considered to be symmetric between the northern and southern hemispheres. Among the different conclusions obtained by several authors, we can point out that the North-South…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-07-19 Leonardo F. G. Batista , Thiago M. Santiago , Paulo C. F. da Silva Filho , Cleo V. Silva , Daniel B. de Freitas

We compare spectra of the zonal harmonics of the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun using observation results and solar dynamo models. The main solar activity cycle as recorded in these tracers is a much more complicated phenomenon than…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-04-16 V. N. Obridko , V. V. Pipin , D. D. Sokoloff , A. S. Shibalova

Despite the known general properties of the solar cycles, a reliable forecast of the 11-year sunspot number variations is still a problem. The difficulties are caused by the apparent chaotic behavior of the sunspot numbers from cycle to…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 I. N. Kitiashvili , A. G. Kosovichev

The so-called solar cycle is generally characterized by the quasi-periodic oscillatory evolution of the photospheric spots number. This quasi-periodic pattern has always been an intriguing question. Several physical models were proposed to…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-14 Alexis Klutsch , Rubens Freire Ferrero

Forecasting El Nino is one of the greatest challenges of science. We show how intensive, large and accurate time series allow us to see through time. Our Discrete Chi-square Method (DCM) can detect arbitrary trend and signal(-s)…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-25 Lauri Jetsu

The solar magnetic field, thought to be generated by the motion of plasma within the Sun, alternates on the order of 11-year cycles and is incompletely understood. Industries rely on accurate forecasts of solar activity, but can solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-02-20 Floe Foxon

Unambiguous detection of signals superimposed on unknown trends is difficult for unevenly spaced data. Here, we formulate the Discrete Chi-square Method (DCM) that can determine the best model for many signals superimposed on arbitrary…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-04-27 Lauri Jetsu

The sunspot number data during the past 400 years indicates that both the profile and the amplitude of the solar cycle have large variations. Some precursors of the solar cycle were identified aiming to predict the solar cycle. The polar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-15 Jie Jiang

Solar activity has a cyclic nature with the ~11-year Schwabe cycle dominating its variability on the interannual timescale. However, solar cycles are significantly modulated in length, shape and magnitude, from near-spotless grand minima to…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-03-29 Akash Biswas , Bidya Karak , Ilya Usoskin , Eckhard Weisshaar

Solar activity seems quite understandable when considered on the scales comparable with a solar cycle, i.e. about 11 years, and on a short time scale of about a year. A solar cycle looks basically (anti)symmetric with respect to the solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-08-08 V. N. Obridko , A. S. Shibalova , D. D. Sokoloff , I. M. Livshits

Solar cycles are studied with the Version 2 monthly smoothed international sunspot number, the variations of which are found to be well represented by the modified logistic differential equation with four parameters: maximum cumulative…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-12-19 G. Qin , S. -S. Wu

It is clearly established that the Sun has an 11-year cycle that is caused by its internal magnetic field. This cycle is also observed in a sample of M dwarfs. In the framework of exoplanet detection or atmospheric characterisation of…

With recent advances in the field of machine learning, the use of deep neural networks for time series forecasting has become more prevalent. The quasi-periodic nature of the solar cycle makes it a good candidate for applying time series…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-05-27 B. Benson , W. D. Pan , A. Prasad , G. A. Gary , Q. Hu

The rise and fall in the number of sunspots have served as a lynchpin in many investigations on solar dynamics. Arising from magnetic disturbances in the sun, variations in sunspot numbers have helped define a solar cycle of around eleven…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2023-06-27 Reynan L. Toledo , Reinabelle Reyes , Christopher C. Bernido

The 11-yr cycle of sunspots undergo amplitude modulation over longer timescales. As a part of this long-term modulation in solar activity, the decennial rhythm occasionally breaks, with quiescent phases with very few sunspots observed over…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-09-05 Chitradeep Saha , Sanghita Chandra , Dibyendu Nandy