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We construct a class of real-valued nonnegative binary functions on a set of jointly distributed random variables, which satisfy the triangle inequality and vanish at identical arguments (pseudo-quasi-metrics). These functions are useful in…
In this paper we propose a family of multivariate asymmetric distributions over an arbitrary subset of set of real numbers which is defined in terms of the well-known elliptically symmetric distributions. We explore essential properties,…
Binomial distributions capture the probabilities of `heads' outcomes when a (biased) coin is tossed multiple times. The coin may be identified with a distribution on the two-element set {0,1}, where the 1 outcome corresponds to `head'. One…
An "element-free" probability distribution is what remains of a probability distribution after we forget the elements to which the probabilities were assigned. These objects naturally arise in Bayesian statistics, in situations where…
Graphical models can represent a multivariate distribution in a convenient and accessible form as a graph. Causal models can be viewed as a special class of graphical models that not only represent the distribution of the observed system…
Consider a logistic partially linear model, in which the logit of the mean of a binary response is related to a linear function of some covariates and a nonparametric function of other covariates. We derive simple, doubly robust estimators…
We propose a probability distribution for multivariate binary random variables. The probability distribution is expressed as principal minors of the parameter matrix, which is a matrix analogous to the inverse covariance matrix in the…
A new class of distributional transformations is introduced, characterized by equations relating function weighted expectations of test functions on a given distribution to expectations of the transformed distribution on the test function's…
The Poisson distribution is the default choice of likelihood for probabilistic models of count data. However, due to the equidispersion contraint of the Poisson, such models may have predictive uncertainty that is artificially inflated.…
In this paper, we consider a property of univariate Gaussian distributions namely conditional expectation shift (or centroid shift). Specifically, we compare two Gaussian distributions in which they differ only in their means. Equivalently,…
This article proposes a bivariate Simplex distribution for modeling continuous outcomes constrained to the interval $(0,1)$, which can represent proportions, rates, or indices. We derive analytical expressions to calculate the dependence…
We give an overview of statistical models and likelihood, together with two of its variants: penalized and hierarchical likelihood. The Kullback-Leibler divergence is referred to repeatedly, for defining the misspecification risk of a…
Polynomials are common algebraic structures, which are often used to approximate functions including probability distributions. This paper proposes to directly define polynomial distributions in order to describe stochastic properties of…
The zero-inflated logistic regression model accommodates binary responses with excess zeros, which often arise from a latent mixture of susceptible and insusceptible subpopulations or asymmetric misclassification of the response. The model…
Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…
The language of probability is used to define several different types of conditional statements. There are four principal types: subjunctive, material, existential, and feasibility. Two further types of conditionals are defined using the…
A multiplicative stochastic process with the lower bound lognormally distributed is investigated. For the process, the model is constructed, and its distribution function (involving four parameters) and the related statistical properties…
The conditional logit model is a standard workhorse approach to estimating customers' product feature preferences using choice data. Using these models at scale, however, can result in numerical imprecision and optimization failure due to a…
We investigate the representation of hierarchical models in terms of marginals of other hierarchical models with smaller interactions. We focus on binary variables and marginals of pairwise interaction models whose hidden variables are…
In a distributed game we imagine a team Player engaging a team Opponent in a distributed fashion. Such games and their strategies have been formalised in concurrent games based on event structures. However there are limitations in founding…