Related papers: Occupied Processes: Going with the Flow
This paper studies the problem of forecasting general stochastic processes using a path-dependent extension of the Neural Jump ODE (NJ-ODE) framework \citep{herrera2021neural}. While NJ-ODE was the first framework to establish convergence…
Order-preserving couplings are elegant tools for obtaining robust estimates of the time-dependent and stationary distributions of Markov processes that are too complex to be analyzed exactly. The starting point of this paper is to study…
Hawkes processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic process that have been applied in diverse areas, from earthquake modelling to financial analysis. They are point processes whose defining characteristic is that they…
The paper generalizes the construction by stochastic flows of consistent utility processes introduced by M. Mrad and N. El Karoui in (2010). The utilities random fields are defined from a general class of processes denoted by $\GX$. Making…
A peculiar feature of It\^o's calculus is that it is an integral calculus that gives no explicit derivative with a systematic differentiation theory counterpart, as in elementary calculus. So, can we define a pathwise stochastic derivative…
The strong $L^2$-approximation of occupation time functionals is studied with respect to discrete observations of a $d$-dimensional c\`adl\`ag process. Upper bounds on the error are obtained under weak assumptions, generalizing previous…
We introduce the Local Occupied Volatility (LOV) model that sits between Dupire's local volatility and fully path-dependent dynamics. By design, the LOV model ensures automatic calibration to European vanilla options, while offering the…
Expanding on neural operators, we propose a novel framework for stochastic process learning across arbitrary domains. In particular, we develop operator flow matching (OFM) for learning stochastic process priors on function spaces. OFM…
The Poisson process of order $i$ is a weighted sum of independent Poisson processes and is used to model the flow of clients in different services. In the paper below we study some extensions of this process, for different forms of the…
Stochastic hydrodynamics is a central tool in the study of first order phase transitions at a fundamental level. Combined with sophisticated free energy models, e.g. as developed in classical Density Functional Theory, complex processes…
In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…
In this paper, we consider a Markov decision process (MDP) with a Borel state space $\textbf{X}\cup\{\Delta\}$, where $\Delta$ is an absorbing state (cemetery), and a Borel action space $\textbf{A}$. We consider the space of finite…
We consider a stochastic process which is (a) described by a continuous-time Markov chain on only short time-scales and (b) constrained to conserve a number of hidden quantities on long time-scales. We assume that the transition matrix of…
Path dependence is omnipresent in many disciplines such as engineering, system theory and finance. It reflects the influence of the past on the future, often expressed through functionals. However, non-Markovian problems are often…
Optimal power flow problems (OPFs) are mathematical programs used to determine how to distribute power over networks subject to network operation constraints and the physics of power flows. In this work, we take the view of treating an OPF…
The large time dynamics of a periodically driven Fokker-Planck process possessing several metastable states is investigated. At weak noise transitions between the metastable states are rare. Their dynamics then represent a discrete…
Neural processes (NPs) are a class of models that learn stochastic processes directly from data and can be used for inference, sampling and conditional sampling. We introduce a new NP model based on flow matching, a generative modeling…
We construct a stochastic fluid process with an underlying piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) akin to the one used in the construction of the rational arrival process (RAP), which we call the RAP-modulated fluid process. As…
Chaos is a fundamental feature of many complex dynamical systems, including weather systems and fluid turbulence. These systems are inherently difficult to predict due to their extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. Many chaotic systems…
The classical dynamics of a particle that is driven by a rapidly oscillating potential (with frequency $\omega$) is studied. The motion is separated into a slow part and a fast part that oscillates around the slow part. The motion of the…