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In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

Recent deep learning approaches focus on improving quantitative scores of dedicated benchmarks, and therefore only reduce the observation-related (aleatoric) uncertainty. However, the model-immanent (epistemic) uncertainty is less…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-25 Dominik Narnhofer , Alexander Effland , Erich Kobler , Kerstin Hammernik , Florian Knoll , Thomas Pock

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Ethan YoungIn Shin , Baris Kale , Michael F. Howland

The predictions of parameteric property models and their uncertainties are sensitive to systematic errors such as inconsistent reference data, parametric model assumptions, or inadequate computational methods. Here, we discuss the…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2017-08-14 Jonny Proppe , Markus Reiher

This study proposes a novel approach to quantifying uncertainties of constitutive relations inferred from noisy experimental data using inverse modelling. We focus on electrochemical systems in which charged species (e.g., Lithium ions) are…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2020-03-12 Athinthra Sethurajan , Sergey Krachkovskiy , Gillian Goward , Bartosz Protas

Machine learning methods for computational imaging require uncertainty estimation to be reliable in real settings. While Bayesian models offer a computationally tractable way of recovering uncertainty, they need large data volumes to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-24 Francesco Tonolini , Jack Radford , Alex Turpin , Daniele Faccio , Roderick Murray-Smith

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), or Bayesian calibration, is the process to quantify the uncertainties of random input parameters based on experimental data. The introduction of model discrepancy term is significant because…

Applications · Statistics 2019-07-24 Xu Wu , Koroush Shirvan , Tomasz Kozlowski

The simulation of physical phenomena with computer models relies on the estimation of physical and/or numerical parameters calibrated to fit experimental data. The approximations within the computer model and the errors in the measurements…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Paul Lartaud , Gwenaël Salin

Calibration is nowadays one of the most important processes involved in the extraction of valuable data from measurements. The current availability of an optimum data cube measured from a heterogeneous set of instruments and surveys relies…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2012-08-13 Maria Jose Marquez

The present paper proposes a novel Bayesian, computational strategy in the context of model-based inverse problems in elastostatics. On one hand we attempt to provide probabilistic estimates of the material properties and their spatial…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-21 P. S. Koutsourelakis

This paper addresses the problem of quantification and propagation of uncertainties associated with dependence modeling when data for characterizing probability models are limited. Practically, the system inputs are often assumed to be…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-14 Jiaxin Zhang , Michael D. Shields

Parameters in climate models are usually calibrated manually, exploiting only small subsets of the available data. This precludes both optimal calibration and quantification of uncertainties. Traditional Bayesian calibration methods that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-04 Oliver R. A. Dunbar , Alfredo Garbuno-Inigo , Tapio Schneider , Andrew M. Stuart

This paper is concerned with the numerical solution of model-based, Bayesian inverse problems. We are particularly interested in cases where the cost of each likelihood evaluation (forward-model call) is expensive and the number of un-…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-25 Isabell M. Franck , P. S. Koutsourelakis

Uncertainty quantification plays an important role in achieving trustworthy and reliable learning-based computational imaging. Recent advances in generative modeling and Bayesian neural networks have enabled the development of…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-07 Canberk Ekmekci , Mujdat Cetin

This paper presents an efficient Bayesian framework for solving nonlinear, high-dimensional model calibration problems. It is based on a Variational Bayesian formulation that aims at approximating the exact posterior by means of solving an…

Applications · Statistics 2015-11-02 Isabell M. Franck , P. S. Koutsourelakis

This paper proposes a hierarchical, multi-resolution framework for the identification of model parameters and their spatially variability from noisy measurements of the response or output. Such parameters are frequently encountered in…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-05-13 P. S. Koutsourelakis

In many safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving and surgical robots, it is desirable to obtain prediction uncertainties from object detection modules to help support safe decision-making. Specifically, such modules need to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-29 Buu Phan , Rick Salay , Krzysztof Czarnecki , Vahdat Abdelzad , Taylor Denouden , Sachin Vernekar

Computer models are commonly used to represent a wide range of real systems, but they often involve some unknown parameters. Estimating the parameters by collecting physical data becomes essential in many scientific fields, ranging from…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-27 Chih-Li Sung , Beau David Barber , Berkley J. Walker

Identifying parameters of computational models from experimental data, or model calibration, is fundamental for assessing and improving the predictability and reliability of computer simulations. In this work, we propose a method for…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-08-07 Lianghao Cao , Keyi Wu , J. Tinsley Oden , Peng Chen , Omar Ghattas

We present a novel Bayesian model and a corresponding robust, probabilistic calibration procedure for the CORSAIR polarimeter that can be applied to other polarimeters. Our calibration procedure combines existing Mueller matrix…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-28 Alan Hsu , Jenna Samra , Steven Tomczyk , Maxim Kramar