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In multivariate time series systems, key insights can be obtained by discovering lead-lag relationships inherent in the data, which refer to the dependence between two time series shifted in time relative to one another, and which can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-20 Yichi Zhang , Mihai Cucuringu , Alexander Y. Shestopaloff , Stefan Zohren

We present DataFlow, a computational framework for building, testing, and deploying high-performance machine learning systems on unbounded time-series data. Traditional data science workflows assume finite datasets and require substantial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Giacinto Paolo Saggese , Paul Smith

Purpose: This study introduces a novel framework for identifying and exploiting predictive lead-lag relationships in financial markets. We propose an integrated approach that combines advanced statistical methodologies with machine learning…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-15 Ivan Letteri

In the fundamental statistics course, students are taught to remember the well-known saying: "Correlation is not Causation". Till now, statistics (i.e., correlation) have developed various successful frameworks, such as Transformer and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-22 Ning Xu , Yifei Gao , Hongshuo Tian , Yongdong Zhang , An-An Liu

Distributed systems are comprised of many components that communicate together to form an application. Distributed tracing gives us visibility into these complex interactions, but it can be difficult to reason about the system's behavior,…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2024-12-11 Adrita Samanta , Henry Han , Darby Huye , Lan Liu , Zhaoqi Zhang , Raja R. Sambasivan

Understanding which parts of a dynamical system cause each other is extremely relevant in fundamental and applied sciences. However, inferring causal links from observational data, namely without direct manipulations of the system, is still…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-06-27 Matteo Allione , Vittorio Del Tatto , Alessandro Laio

Causal networks are useful in a wide variety of applications, from medical diagnosis to root-cause analysis in manufacturing. In practice, however, causal networks are often incomplete with missing causal relations. This paper presents a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Utkarshani Jaimini , Cory Henson , Amit P. Sheth

We propose a new method of discovering causal relationships in temporal data based on the notion of causal compression. To this end, we adopt the Pearlian graph setting and the directed information as an information theoretic tool for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-02 Aleksander Wieczorek , Volker Roth

Even in the absence of clocks, time bounds on the duration of actions enable the use of time for distributed coordination. This paper initiates an investigation of coordination in such a setting. A new communication structure called a…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2017-05-25 Asa Dan , Rajit Manohar , Yoram Moses

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-04 Yuxiao Cheng , Ziqian Wang , Tingxiong Xiao , Qin Zhong , Jinli Suo , Kunlun He

Dynamical processes on time-varying complex networks are key to understanding and modeling a broad variety of processes in socio-technical systems. Here we focus on empirical temporal networks of human proximity and we aim at understanding…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-11-01 Laetitia Gauvin , André Panisson , Ciro Cattuto , Alain Barrat

Spreading processes on graphs arise in a host of application domains, from the study of online social networks to viral marketing to epidemiology. Various discrete-time probabilistic models for spreading processes have been proposed. These…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-09-24 Abram Magner , Carolyn Kaminski , Petko Bogdanov

Federated causal discovery aims to uncover the causal relationships between entities while protecting data privacy, which has significant importance and numerous applications in real-world scenarios. Existing federated causal structure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-10 Wei Chen , Wanyang Gu , Linjun Peng , Ruichu Cai , Zhifeng Hao , Kun Zhang

Healthcare artificial intelligence systems often degrade in performance when deployed across institutions, with documented performance drops and perpetuation of discriminatory patterns embedded in data. This brittleness comes, in part, from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Munib Mesinovic , Max Buhlan , Tingting Zhu

Multivariate Hawkes process provides a powerful framework for modeling temporal dependencies and event-driven interactions in complex systems. While existing methods primarily focus on uncovering causal structures among observed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Songyao Jin , Biwei Huang

Emerging application scenarios, such as cyber-physical systems (CPSs), the Internet of Things (IoT), and edge computing, call for coordination approaches addressing openness, self-adaptation, heterogeneity, and deployment agnosticism.…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-06-22 Danilo Pianini , Roberto Casadei , Mirko Viroli , Stefano Mariani , Franco Zambonelli

Causal discovery algorithms based on probabilistic graphical models have emerged in geoscience applications for the identification and visualization of dynamical processes. The key idea is to learn the structure of a graphical model from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-12-29 Imme Ebert-Uphoff , Yi Deng

Causal discovery (CD) aims to discover the causal graph underlying the data generation mechanism of observed variables. In many real-world applications, the observed variables are vector-valued, such as in climate science where variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Urmi Ninad , Jonas Wahl , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

The plethora of algorithms in the research field of process mining builds on directly-follows relations. Even though various improvements have been made in the last decade, there are serious weaknesses of these relationships. Once events…

Databases · Computer Science 2023-07-24 Philipp Waibel , Lukas Pfahlsberger , Kate Revoredo , Jan Mendling

In distributed systems where strong consistency is costly when not impossible, causal consistency provides a valuable abstraction to represent program executions as partial orders. In addition to the sequential program order of each…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2016-03-15 Matthieu Perrin , Achour Mostefaoui , Claude Jard
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