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Hidden Markov models (HMMs) offer a robust and efficient framework for analyzing time series data, modelling both the underlying latent state progression over time and the observation process, conditional on the latent state. However, a…

Sequence analysis is being more and more widely used for the analysis of social sequences and other multivariate categorical time series data. However, it is often complex to describe, visualize, and compare large sequence data, especially…

It is of some interest to understand how statistically based mechanisms for signal processing might be integrated with biologically motivated mechanisms such as neural networks. This paper explores a novel hybrid approach for classifying…

The detection of change-points in heterogeneous sequences is a statistical challenge with many applications in fields such as finance, signal analysis and biology. A wide variety of literature exists for finding an ideal set of…

Hidden Markov models and their variants are the predominant sequential classification method in such domains as speech recognition, bioinformatics and natural language processing. Being generative rather than discriminative models, however,…

As we move towards a mixed-traffic scenario of Autonomous vehicles (AVs) and Human-driven vehicles (HDVs), understanding the car-following behaviour is important to improve traffic efficiency and road safety. Using a real-world trajectory…

A workload analysis technique is presented that processes data from operation type traces and creates a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to represent the workload that generated those traces. The HMM can be used to create representative traces for…

We propose DenseHMM - a modification of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) that allows to learn dense representations of both the hidden states and the observables. Compared to the standard HMM, transition probabilities are not atomic but composed…

We present a new algorithm for identifying the transition and emission probabilities of a hidden Markov model (HMM) from the emitted data. Expectation-maximization becomes computationally prohibitive for long observation records, which are…

Accurate and interpretable car-following models are essential for traffic simulation and autonomous vehicle development. However, classical models like the Intelligent Driver Model (IDM) are fundamentally limited by their parsimonious and…

The well-established methodology for the estimation of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) as hidden Markov models (HMMs) with extended state spaces is further developed to incorporate covariate influences across all aspects of the state…

The stock market presents a challenging environment for accurately predicting future stock prices due to its intricate and ever-changing nature. However, the utilization of advanced methodologies can significantly enhance the precision of…

The hidden Markov model (HMM) provides a powerful framework for inference in time-varying environments, where the underlying state evolves according to a Markov chain. To address the optimal filtering problem in general dynamic settings, we…

We address the multiple testing problem under the assumption that the true/false hypotheses are driven by a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), which is recognized as a fundamental setting to model multiple testing under dependence since the seminal…

This paper is concerned with the computational complexity of learning the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Although HMMs are some of the most widely used tools in sequential and time series modeling, they are cryptographically hard to learn in…

This paper explores the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for economic forecasting, focusing on predicting CPI inflation rates. The study explores a new approach that integrates…

An intrinsic problem of classifiers based on machine learning (ML) methods is that their learning time grows as the size and complexity of the training dataset increases. For this reason, it is important to have efficient computational…

Humans make daily routine decisions based on their internal states in intricate interaction scenarios. This paper presents a probabilistically reconstructive learning approach to identify the internal states of multi-vehicle sequential…

We test the robustness of a maximum-likelihood (ML) based classifier where sequential data as observation is corrupted by noise. The hypothesis is that a generative model, that combines the state transitions of a hidden Markov model (HMM)…

Traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of hidden Markov models (HMMs) involves latent states underlying an imperfect observation process, and generates posterior samples for top-level parameters concurrently with nuisance…