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This work extends a previous work in regime detection, which allowed trading positions to be profitably adjusted when a new regime was detected, to ex ante prediction of regimes, leading to substantial performance improvements over the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-10-10 Piotr Pomorski , Denise Gorse

This research aims to leverage machine learning to improve stock price prediction and support informed investment decisions related to buying, selling, and holding assets. Specifically, this work investigates transformer-based models for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-26 Marie Soehl Coolsaet , Roberto Gallardo , Zhen Gao

Stock market prediction has been an active area of research for a considerable period. Arrival of computing, followed by Machine Learning has upgraded the speed of research as well as opened new avenues. As part of this research study, we…

We introduce a novel approach to options trading strategies using a highly scalable and data-driven machine learning algorithm. In contrast to traditional approaches that often require specifications of underlying market dynamics or…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-22 Wee Ling Tan , Stephen Roberts , Stefan Zohren

Forecasting the movements of stock prices is one the most challenging problems in financial markets analysis. In this paper, we use Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for the prediction of future price movements using limit order book data.…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2019-04-09 Paraskevi Nousi , Avraam Tsantekidis , Nikolaos Passalis , Adamantios Ntakaris , Juho Kanniainen , Anastasios Tefas , Moncef Gabbouj , Alexandros Iosifidis

Technical trading rules and linear regressive models are often used by practitioners to find trends in financial data. However, these models are unsuited to find non-linearly separable patterns. We propose a decision tree forecasting model…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-17 Lucas Fievet , Didier Sornette

Time series forecasting is widely used in a multitude of domains. In this paper, we present four models to predict the stock price using the SPX index as input time series data. The martingale and ordinary linear models require the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-23 Aaron Elliot , Cheng Hua Hsu

We revisit the problem of predicting directional movements of stock prices based on news articles: here our algorithm uses daily articles from The Wall Street Journal to predict the closing stock prices on the same day. We propose a unified…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-07-03 Felix Ming Fai Wong , Zhenming Liu , Mung Chiang

In this work we use Recurrent Neural Networks and Multilayer Perceptrons to predict NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX stock prices from historical data. We experiment with different architectures and compare data normalization techniques. Then, we…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-30 Kerda Varaku

This research proposes a cutting-edge ensemble deep learning framework for stock price prediction by combining three advanced neural network architectures: The particular areas of interest for the research include but are not limited to:…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-31 Anindya Sarkar , G. Vadivu

The unpredictability and volatility of the stock market render it challenging to make a substantial profit using any generalised scheme. Many previous studies tried different techniques to build a machine learning model, which can make a…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-14 A. K. M. Amanat Ullah , Fahim Imtiaz , Miftah Uddin Md Ihsan , Md. Golam Rabiul Alam , Mahbub Majumdar

We construct the maximally predictable portfolio (MPP) of stocks using machine learning. Solving for the optimal constrained weights in the multi-asset MPP gives portfolios with a high monthly coefficient of determination, given the sample…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-06 Michael Pinelis , David Ruppert

The prediction of a stock price has always been a challenging issue, as its volatility can be affected by many factors such as national policies, company financial reports, industry performance, and investor sentiment etc.. In this paper,…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-08 Qiao Zhou , Ningning Liu

There is a growing desire in the field of reinforcement learning (and machine learning in general) to move from black-box models toward more "interpretable AI." We improve interpretability of reinforcement learning by increasing the utility…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-03 Aaron M. Roth , Nicholay Topin , Pooyan Jamshidi , Manuela Veloso

This paper introduces a novel methodology for index return forecasting, blending highly correlated stock prices, advanced deep learning techniques, and intricate factor integration. Departing from conventional cap-weighted approaches, our…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-06 Tian Tian , Ricky Cooper , Jiahao Deng , Qingquan Zhang

Time series analysis is the process of building a model using statistical techniques to represent characteristics of time series data. Processing and forecasting huge time series data is a challenging task. This paper presents Approximation…

Stock price movement prediction is a challenging and essential problem in finance. While it is well established in modern behavioral finance that the share prices of related stocks often move after the release of news via reactions and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-26 Luis Villamil , Ryan Bausback , Shaeke Salman , Ting L. Liu , Conrad Horn , Xiuwen Liu

The paper focuses on predicting the Nifty 50 Index by using 8 Supervised Machine Learning Models. The techniques used for empirical study are Adaptive Boost (AdaBoost), k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), Linear Regression (LR), Artificial Neural…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-02-21 Gurjeet Singh

The marvel of markets lies in the fact that dispersed information is instantaneously processed and used to adjust the price of goods, services and assets. Financial markets are particularly efficient when it comes to processing information;…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-19 Stefan Feuerriegel , Helmut Prendinger

Stock trading is one of the popular ways for financial management. However, the market and the environment of economy is unstable and usually not predictable. Furthermore, engaging in stock trading requires time and effort to analyze,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Yunfei Luo , Zhangqi Duan