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Forecasting stock and cryptocurrency prices is challenging due to high volatility and non-stationarity, influenced by factors like economic changes and market sentiment. Previous research shows that Echo State Networks (ESNs) can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Mansi Sharma , Enrico Sartor , Marc Cavazza , Helmut Prendinger

Edge-exchangeable probabilistic network models generate edges as an i.i.d.~sequence from a discrete measure, providing a simple means for statistical inference of latent network properties. The measure is often constructed using the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-09-15 Xinglong Li , Trevor Campbell

Early-exit neural networks reduce inference cost by enabling confident predictions at intermediate layers. However, joint training often leads to gradient interference, with deeper classifiers dominating optimization. We propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-12 Saad Mokssit , Ouassim Karrakchou , Alejandro Mousist , Mounir Ghogho

Echo state networks are powerful recurrent neural networks. However, they are often unstable and shaky, making the process of finding an good ESN for a specific dataset quite hard. Obtaining a superb accuracy by using the Echo State Network…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-22 Qiuyi Wu , Ernest Fokoue , Dhireesha Kudithipudi

We introduce provenance networks, a novel class of neural models designed to provide end-to-end, training-data-driven explainability. Unlike conventional post-hoc methods, provenance networks learn to link each prediction directly to its…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Ali Kayyam , Anusha Madan Gopal , M. Anthony Lewis

Increasingly sophisticated mathematical modelling processes from Machine Learning are being used to analyse complex data. However, the performance and explainability of these models within practical critical systems requires a rigorous and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-08 Xingyu Zhao , Alec Banks , James Sharp , Valentin Robu , David Flynn , Michael Fisher , Xiaowei Huang

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have made significant progress in recognizing visual elements and generating descriptive text in image-captioning tasks. However, their improved performance comes from increased computational burden and inference…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Divya Jyoti Bajpai , Manjesh Kumar Hanawal

Pretrained models have become standard in both vision and language, yet they typically do not provide reliable measures of confidence. Existing uncertainty estimation methods, such as deep ensembles and MC dropout, are often too…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Yongchan Chun , Chanhee Park , Jeongho Yoon , Jaehyung Seo , Heuiseok Lim

Widespread adoption of AI for medical decision making is still hindered due to ethical and safety-related concerns. For AI-based decision support systems in healthcare settings it is paramount to be reliable and trustworthy. Common deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-26 Adrian Lindenmeyer , Malte Blattmann , Stefan Franke , Thomas Neumuth , Daniel Schneider

We propose Trusted Neural Network (TNN) models, which are deep neural network models that satisfy safety constraints critical to the application domain. We investigate different mechanisms for incorporating rule-based knowledge in the form…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-21 Shalini Ghosh , Amaury Mercier , Dheeraj Pichapati , Susmit Jha , Vinod Yegneswaran , Patrick Lincoln

Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-30 Chanwoo Park , Jae Myung Kim , Seok Hyeon Ha , Jungwoo Lee

Deep learning architectures have proved versatile in a number of drug discovery applications, including the modelling of in vitro compound activity. While controlling for prediction confidence is essential to increase the trust,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-23 Isidro Cortes-Ciriano , Andreas Bender

Fully Connected Neural Networks (FCNNs) have been the core of most state-of-the-art Machine Learning (ML) applications in recent years and also have been widely used for Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs). Experimental results from the last…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-16 Fares Meghdouri , Maximilian Bachl , Tanja Zseby

Early fault detection and fault prognosis are crucial to ensure efficient and safe operations of complex engineering systems such as the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and its power electronics (high voltage converter modulators).…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2022-10-03 Majdi I. Radaideh , Chris Pappas , Mark Wezensky , Pradeep Ramuhalli , Sarah Cousineau

Despite numerous studies of deep autoencoders (AEs) for unsupervised anomaly detection, AEs still lack a way to express uncertainty in their predictions, crucial for ensuring safe and trustworthy machine learning systems in high-stake…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-28 Bang Xiang Yong , Alexandra Brintrup

In this study, an efficient stochastic gradient-free method, the ensemble neural networks (ENN), is developed. In the ENN, the optimization process relies on covariance matrices rather than derivatives. The covariance matrices are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-11 Yuntian Chen , Haibin Chang , Meng Jin , Dongxiao Zhang

Quantifying the uncertainty in the output of a neural network is essential for deployment in scientific or engineering applications where decisions must be made under limited or noisy data. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Alex Alberts , Ilias Bilionis

Despite their incredible performance, it is well reported that deep neural networks tend to be overoptimistic about their prediction confidence. Finding effective and efficient calibration methods for neural networks is therefore an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-07 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

Ensemble forecasting is, so far, the most successful approach to produce relevant forecasts with an estimation of their uncertainty. The main limitations of ensemble forecasting are the high computational cost and the difficulty to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Maximiliano A. Sacco , Juan J. Ruiz , Manuel Pulido , Pierre Tandeo

Exoplanet observations are currently analysed with Bayesian retrieval techniques. Due to the computational load of the models used, a compromise is needed between model complexity and computing time. Analysis of data from future facilities,…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2022-06-29 Francisco Ardevol Martinez , Michiel Min , Inga Kamp , Paul I. Palmer