Related papers: Bayesian mortality modelling with pandemics: a van…
A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…
In this study, we introduce a novel and comprehensive extension of a Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping model that explicitly accounts for gender-specific effects of meteorological exposures. Leveraging fine-scale weekly mortality and…
Several key metrics in public health convey the probability that a primary event will lead to a more serious secondary event in the future. These "severity rates" can change over the course of an epidemic in response to shifting conditions…
The long duration of the COVID-19 pandemic allowed for multiple bursts in the infection and death rates, the so-called epidemic waves. This complex behavior is no longer tractable by simple compartmental model and requires more…
Stochastic epidemic models which incorporate interactions between space and human mobility are a key tool to inform prioritisation of outbreak control to appropriate locations. However, methods for fitting such models to national-level…
In recent years, a wide range of mortality models has been proposed to address the diverse factors influencing mortality rates, which has highlighted the need to perform model selection. Traditional mortality model selection methods, such…
A generalisation of the Susceptible-Infectious model is made to include a time-dependent transmission rate, which leads to a close analytical expression in terms of a logistic function. The solution can be applied to any continuous function…
In this article, we deal with COVID-19 data to study the trend of the epidemic at the global situation. Choosing the mortality rate as an appropriate metric which measures the relative relation between the cumulative confirmed cases and…
The number of recurrent events before a terminating event is often of interest. For instance, death terminates an individual's process of rehospitalizations and the number of rehospitalizations is an important indicator of economic cost. We…
Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero…
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards have emerged as useful tools to monitor the evolution of the pandemic, inform the public, and assist governments in decision making. Our goal is to develop a globally applicable…
This paper proposes a data-driven approximate Bayesian computation framework for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification of epidemic models, which incorporates two novelties: (i) the identification of the initial conditions by…
News might trigger jump arrivals in financial time series. The "bad" and "good" news seems to have distinct impact. In the research, a double exponential jump distribution is applied to model downward and upward jumps. Bayesian double…
We propose a methodology to quantify the impact on breast cancer mortality of diagnostic delays caused by public health measures introduced as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic. These measures affected cancer pathways by halting cancer…
The predominant way of modelling mortality rates is the Lee-Carter model and its many extensions. The Lee-Carter model and its many extensions use a latent process to forecast. These models are estimated using a two-step procedure that…
The focus of the present paper is to forecast mortality rates for small sub-populations that are parts of a larger super-population. In this setting the assumption is that it is possible to produce reliable forecasts for the…
Competing risk models are survival models with several events of interest acting in competition and whose occurrence is only observed for the event that occurs first in time. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to these models in which…
In biomedical settings, multitype recurrent events such as stroke and heart failure occur frequently, often concluding with a terminal event such as death. Understanding the links between these recurring and terminal events is fundamental…
Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection…
The death toll for Covid-19 may be reduced by dividing the population into two classes, the vulnerable and the fit, with different lockdown regimes. Instead of one reproduction number there now are four parameters. These make it possible to…