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Inference for models with recursively defined likelihoods is computationally demanding, limiting scalability to large datasets. We propose a stabilised weighted subsampling methodology for accelerated inference based on an unbiased…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Matias Quiroz , Aishwarya Bhaskaran , Zixuan Wang , Thomas Goodwin

Existing sequential generalized estimating equation methodology for longitudinal and group-correlated data focuses on narrow hypotheses concerning treatment efficacy and often makes modeling assumptions that impede the desirable robustness…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-16 Nathan T. Provost , Abdus S. Wahed

The construction of confidence intervals for the mean of a bounded random variable is a classical problem in statistics with numerous applications in machine learning and virtually all scientific fields. In particular, obtaining the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-12 Václav Voráček , Francesco Orabona

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used to evaluate natural language generation tasks as automated metrics. However, the likelihood, a measure of LLM's plausibility for a sentence, can vary due to superficial differences in sentences,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Masanari Oi , Masahiro Kaneko , Ryuto Koike , Mengsay Loem , Naoaki Okazaki

Constructing valid confidence sets is a crucial task in statistical inference, yet traditional methods often face challenges when dealing with complex models or limited observed sample sizes. These challenges are frequently encountered in…

We present a deep transformation model for probabilistic regression. Deep learning is known for outstandingly accurate predictions on complex data but in regression tasks, it is predominantly used to just predict a single number. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-04-02 Beate Sick , Torsten Hothorn , Oliver Dürr

Robust MDPs (RMDPs) can be used to compute policies with provable worst-case guarantees in reinforcement learning. The quality and robustness of an RMDP solution are determined by the ambiguity set---the set of plausible transition…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-21 Marek Petrik , Reazul Hasan Russell

We consider a simulation-based Ranking and Selection (R&S) problem with input uncertainty, where unknown input distributions can be estimated using input data arriving in batches of varying sizes over time. Each time a batch arrives,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-09-05 Di Wu , Yuhao Wang , Enlu Zhou

Deep learning models have significantly improved prediction accuracy in various fields, gaining recognition across numerous disciplines. Yet, an aspect of deep learning that remains insufficiently addressed is the assessment of prediction…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-18 Asaf Ben Arie , Malka Gorfine

In this work, an adaptive predictive control scheme for linear systems with unknown parameters and bounded additive disturbances is proposed. In contrast to related adaptive control approaches that robustly consider the parametric…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-03 Johannes Teutsch , Christopher Narr , Sebastian Kerz , Dirk Wollherr , Marion Leibold

The likelihood ratio is a crucial quantity for statistical inference in science that enables hypothesis testing, construction of confidence intervals, reweighting of distributions, and more. Many modern scientific applications, however,…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-12-11 Shahzar Rizvi , Mariel Pettee , Benjamin Nachman

In many statistical problems, the data distribution is specified through a generative process for which the likelihood function is analytically intractable, yet inference on the associated model parameters remains of primary interest. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Haoyu Jiang , Yuexi Wang , Yun Yang

Complex scientific models where the likelihood cannot be evaluated present a challenge for statistical inference. Over the past two decades, a wide range of algorithms have been proposed for learning parameters in computationally feasible…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-16 Aden Forrow , Ruth E. Baker

Online sequence prediction is the problem of predicting the next element of a sequence given previous elements. This problem has been extensively studied in the context of individual sequence prediction, where no prior assumptions are made…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-22 Elad Eban , Aharon Birnbaum , Shai Shalev-Shwartz , Amir Globerson

In the setting of high-dimensional linear models with Gaussian noise, we investigate the possibility of confidence statements connected to model selection. Although there exist numerous procedures for adaptive point estimation, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-10-07 Angelika Rohde , Lutz Duembgen

Likelihood-free methods perform parameter inference in stochastic simulator models where evaluating the likelihood is intractable but sampling synthetic data is possible. One class of methods for this likelihood-free problem uses a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-21 Conor Durkan , Iain Murray , George Papamakarios

We study the sequential batch learning problem in linear contextual bandits with finite action sets, where the decision maker is constrained to split incoming individuals into (at most) a fixed number of batches and can only observe…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-15 Yanjun Han , Zhengqing Zhou , Zhengyuan Zhou , Jose Blanchet , Peter W. Glynn , Yinyu Ye

We consider selection of random predictors for high-dimensional regression problem with binary response for a general loss function. Important special case is when the binary model is semiparametric and the response function is misspecified…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-19 Mariusz Kubkowski , Jan Mielniczuk

In this paper, we propose a general method for testing composite hypotheses. Our idea is to use confidence limits to define stopping and decision rules. The requirements of operating characteristic function can be satisfied by adjusting the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-10 Xinjia Chen

Recently, several studies (Zhou et al., 2021a; Zhang et al., 2021b; Kim et al., 2021; Zhou and Gu, 2022) have provided variance-dependent regret bounds for linear contextual bandits, which interpolates the regret for the worst-case regime…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Heyang Zhao , Jiafan He , Dongruo Zhou , Tong Zhang , Quanquan Gu