Related papers: BOB: Bayesian Optimized Bootstrap for Uncertainty …

We propose a simple approach that provides accurate uncertainty quantification for Bayesian inference in misspecified or approximate models, and for generalized (Gibbs) posteriors. While existing solutions in this context are based on…

In Bayesian theory, calculating a posterior probability distribution is highly important but usually difficult. Therefore, some methods have been put forward to deal with such problem, among which, the most popular one is the asymptotic…

Bayesian Optimization (BO) methods are useful for optimizing functions that are expen- sive to evaluate, lack an analytical expression and whose evaluations can be contaminated by noise. These methods rely on a probabilistic model of the…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely-used method for optimizing expensive (to evaluate) problems. At the core of most BO methods is the modeling of the objective function using a Gaussian Process (GP) whose covariance is selected from a…

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

We propose a Bayesian uncertainty quantification method for large-scale imaging inverse problems. Our method applies to all Bayesian models that are log-concave, where maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) estimation is a convex optimization problem.…

The indeterminate nature of human motion requires trajectory prediction systems to use a probabilistic model to formulate the multi-modality phenomenon and infer a finite set of future trajectories. However, the inference processes of most…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a widely used iterative algorithm for optimizing black-box functions. Each iteration requires maximizing an acquisition function, such as the upper confidence bound (UCB) or a sample path from the Gaussian…

Simulator-based models are models for which the likelihood is intractable but simulation of synthetic data is possible. They are often used to describe complex real-world phenomena, and as such can often be misspecified in practice.…

Learning robot controllers by minimizing a black-box objective cost using Bayesian optimization (BO) can be time-consuming and challenging. It is very often the case that some roll-outs result in failure behaviors, causing premature…

We propose a novel framework for joint magnetic resonance image reconstruction and uncertainty quantification using under-sampled k-space measurements. The problem is formulated as a Bayesian linear inverse problem, where prior…

Bayesian variable selection requires sampling from a posterior distribution that combines discrete model indicators with continuously varying parameters, a challenge often addressed through reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC).…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is an efficient method for optimizing expensive black-box functions. In real-world applications, BO often faces a major problem of missing values in inputs. The missing inputs can happen in two cases. First, the…

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a powerful method for optimizing black-box functions by combining prior knowledge with ongoing function evaluations. BO constructs a probabilistic surrogate model of the objective function given the covariates,…

Bayesian model selection is premised on the assumption that the data are generated from one of the postulated models. However, in many applications, all of these models are incorrect (that is, there is misspecification). When the models are…

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

Composite likelihood provides approximate inference when the full likelihood is intractable and sub-likelihood functions of marginal events can be evaluated relatively easily. It has been successfully applied for many complex models.…

This paper proposes a novel Bayesian framework for solving Poisson inverse problems by devising a Monte Carlo sampling algorithm which accounts for the underlying non-Euclidean geometry. To address the challenges posed by the Poisson…

Bayesian optimization (BO) has become popular for sequential optimization of black-box functions. When BO is used to optimize a target function, we often have access to previous evaluations of potentially related functions. This begs the…

A new approach for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and selection is proposed, based on the mixture model approach for hypothesis testing in Kaniav et al., 2014. Inheriting from the good properties of this approach, it extends BMA to cases…