Related papers: BOB: Bayesian Optimized Bootstrap for Uncertainty …
Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient optimization algorithm widely employed across various applications. In some challenging BO tasks, input uncertainty arises due to the inevitable randomness in the optimization process, such…
Bayesian optimisation (BO) has been a successful approach to optimise functions which are expensive to evaluate and whose observations are noisy. Classical BO algorithms, however, do not account for errors about the location where…
We develop a weighted Bayesian Bootstrap (WBB) for machine learning and statistics. WBB provides uncertainty quantification by sampling from a high dimensional posterior distribution. WBB is computationally fast and scalable using only…
In the realm of statistical learning, the increasing volume of accessible data and increasing model complexity necessitate robust methodologies. This paper explores two branches of robust Bayesian methods in response to this trend. The…
The formalism of Bayesian model selection provides a very elegant way of ranking different physical models in terms of how compatible they are with a given set of observed data. However, its practical application is often hampered by the…
The Bayesian inversion method demonstrates significant potential for solving inverse problems, enabling both point estimation and uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation may become unstable…
For large model spaces, the potential entrapment of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods with spike-and-slab priors poses significant challenges in posterior computation in regression models. On the other hand, maximum a posteriori…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is unavailable but simulating from the model is possible. However, many ABC algorithms require a large number of simulations, which can be costly.…
This paper deals with the identification of linear stochastic dynamical systems, where the unknowns include system coefficients and noise variances. Conventional approaches that rely on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) require…
In this paper we revisit the weighted likelihood bootstrap, a method that generates samples from an approximate Bayesian posterior of a parametric model. We show that the same method can be derived, without approximation, under a Bayesian…
We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent…
Bayesian optimization (BO) has gained attention as an efficient algorithm for black-box optimization of expensive-to-evaluate systems, where the BO algorithm iteratively queries the system and suggests new trials based on a probabilistic…
Gaussian process (GP) based Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful method for optimizing black-box functions efficiently. The practical performance and theoretical guarantees of this approach depend on having the correct GP hyperparameter…
We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…
We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for…
Bayesian modelling allows for the quantification of predictive uncertainty which is crucial in safety-critical applications. Yet for many machine learning (ML) algorithms, it is difficult to construct or implement their Bayesian…
Bayesian optimisation (BO) uses probabilistic surrogate models - usually Gaussian processes (GPs) - for the optimisation of expensive black-box functions. At each BO iteration, the GP hyperparameters are fit to previously-evaluated data by…
Bayesian optimization (BO) methods are useful for optimizing functions that are expensive to evaluate, lack an analytical expression and whose evaluations can be contaminated by noise. These methods rely on a probabilistic model of the…
Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sequential approach for optimizing black-box objective functions using zeroth-order noisy observations. In BO, Gaussian processes (GPs) are employed as probabilistic surrogate models to estimate the objective…