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We provide guidance on multiple imputation of missing at random treatments in observational studies. Specifically, analysts should account for both covariates and outcomes, i.e., not just use propensity scores, when imputing the missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-23 Joseph Feldman , Jerome P. Reiter

This paper introduces a generalized ps-BART model for the estimation of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) in continuous treatments, addressing limitations of the Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-11 Hugo Gobato Souto , Francisco Louzada Neto

Estimating causal effects from observational data informs us about which factors are important in an autonomous system, and enables us to take better decisions. This is important because it has applications in selecting a treatment in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Plabon Shaha , Talha Islam Zadid , Ismat Rahman , Md. Mosaddek Khan

Estimating causal effects from observational data is essential in fields such as medicine, economics and social sciences, where privacy concerns are paramount. We propose a general, model-agnostic framework for differentially private…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Christian Janos Lebeda , Mathieu Even , Aurélien Bellet , Julie Josse

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) represent a gold standard when developing policy guidelines. However, RCTs are often narrow, and lack data on broader populations of interest. Causal effects in these populations are often estimated using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Zeshan Hussain , Michael Oberst , Ming-Chieh Shih , David Sontag

Developing tools for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) and individualized treatment effects has been an area of active research in recent years. While these tools have proven to be useful in many contexts, a concern when…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-07 Mahsa Ashouri , Nicholas C. Henderson

The growing demand for personalized decision-making has led to a surge of interest in estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). Various types of CATE estimators have been developed with advancements in machine learning and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Siyi Wang , Yijun Li , Qi Wu

Proximal causal inference provides a framework for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging outcome and treatment proxies. Identification in this framework relies on the existence…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 Chunrong Ai , Jiawei Shan

Given a dataset of individuals each described by a covariate vector, a treatment, and an observed outcome on the treatment, the goal of the individual treatment effect (ITE) estimation task is to predict outcome changes resulting from a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Lokesh Nagalapatti , Pranava Singhal , Avishek Ghosh , Sunita Sarawagi

Clinical study populations often differ meaningfully from the broader populations to which results are intended to generalize. Weighting methods such as inverse probability of sampling weights (IPSW) reweight study participants to resemble…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 William Stewart , Carly L. Brantner , Elizabeth A. Stuart , Laine Thomas

We study the model selection problem in conditional average treatment effect (CATE) prediction. Unlike previous works on this topic, we focus on preserving the rank order of the performance of candidate CATE predictors to enable accurate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-20 Yuta Saito , Shota Yasui

Estimating the Individual Treatment Effect from observational data, defined as the difference between outcomes with and without treatment or intervention, while observing just one of both, is a challenging problems in causal learning. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-07 Céline Beji , Michaël Bon , Florian Yger , Jamal Atif

When considering the effect a treatment will cause in a population of interest, we often look to evidence from randomized controlled trials. In settings where multiple trials on a treatment are available, we may wish to synthesize the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-08 Nicole Schnitzler , Eloise Kaizar

Selection bias is pervasive in observational studies. For example, large scale biobanks data can exhibit ``healthy volunteer bias'' when respondents are healthier and of higher socio-economic status than the population they are meant to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Yiwen Qiu , Filip Kovacevic , Shimeng Huang , Peter Spirtes , Francesco Locatello

The average treatment effect (ATE), the mean difference in potential outcomes under treatment and control, is a canonical causal effect. Overlap, which says that all subjects have non-zero probability of either treatment status, is…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Herbert P. Susmann , Alec McClean , Iván Díaz

Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Pascal Memmesheimer , Vincent Heuveline , Jürgen Hesser

Causally interpretable meta-analysis combines information from a collection of randomized controlled trials to estimate treatment effects in a target population in which experimentation may not be possible but covariate information can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-03 Jon A. Steingrimsson , David H. Barker , Ruofan Bie , Issa J. Dahabreh

We address the estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) for structured treatments (e.g., graphs, images, texts). Given a weak condition on the effect, we propose the generalized Robinson decomposition, which (i) isolates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-29 Jean Kaddour , Yuchen Zhu , Qi Liu , Matt J. Kusner , Ricardo Silva

Generalizing causal estimates in randomized experiments to a broader target population is essential for guiding decisions by policymakers and practitioners in the social and biomedical sciences. While recent papers developed various…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-03 Melody Huang , Naoki Egami , Erin Hartman , Luke Miratrix

We study Federated Causal Inference, an approach to estimate treatment effects from decentralized data across centers. We compare three classes of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimators derived from the Plug-in G-Formula, ranging from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-26 Rémi Khellaf , Aurélien Bellet , Julie Josse
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